The Big Blue Wall

15 Jan 2009 05:45 pm

Atlantic Media's political director Ron Brownstein calls it the Big Blue
Wall. They're the 18 states which have voted for Democratic presidential
candidates consistently through at least five election cycles. That's
248 electoral votes. (In contrast, Republicans have won 13 states worth
about 93 electoral votes over five cycles.)

In a cover story for the next National Journal, Brownstein describes the
common demographic profile of these states -- "affluent; well-educated;
ethnically and racially diverse; culturally moderate to liberal; with
below average rates of church attendance and fewer evangelical
Protestants than the national mean."

Since his days at the Los Angeles Times, Brownstein has been a principal
expositor of the idea that electoral coalitions are built around and
sustained by culture, rather than economic well-being. And cultural
indicators predict that these states will remain blue for years to come.
That is -- Democrats may be on the leading edge of this trend.
Brownstein identifies two trends -- an increase in racial diversity --
and "the growing Democratic strength among white voters with college or
postgraduate degrees."

In 1988, large, affluent, white-collar suburban counties such as
Montgomery and Delaware in Pennsylvania, Bergen in New Jersey, Oakland
in Michigan, and Fairfield in Connecticut, provided huge margins for
George H.W. Bush.

These counties aren't likely to swing back to the Republicans anytime soon.

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:)