On 2008-07-30 10:41:02 -0400, Dave said:

On Wed, 30 Jul 2008 00:10:13 GMT, Jere Lull said:

Below 20%, they're covering their butt. Between 20-40, we
can probably sail around the isolated clouds. 60 or higher, and we'll
at best be able to scoot quickly between cells. 80+ and we'll likely
hunker down.

The summer LIS forecast virtually always says something about a
"possibility" of thunderstorms. As a rule of thumb, I will generally go out
unless the probability is more than 50%.

Pretty close to the Chesapeake. I've gotten a little more bold after 16
season's experience. I'm more rarely surprised these days since I
recognize the bad signs more reliably.

Again, that's part of the local knowledge required to interpret any
weather report. I'd be more chicken in foreign cruising grounds -- even
as close as the Chesapeake below the Bay Bridge, within sight of our
marina on a good day.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/