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Jere Lull

On 2008-07-29 11:53:04 -0400, said:

Fair enough. If you can sail in 15 knots without needing to reef, you
might find 5 knots of wind rather boring though

Depends on the boat. We had forecasts for 5-15 Sunday and got them all
at some point or another. Reefed for a few, but it's no big deal for us.

The "50% chance of thunderstorms" is a joke. There's a 100% chance of
thunderstomrs... the question is, will one hit right where you happen
to be at the moment? And will it be a summer afternoon flash-bang or a
70-knot howler with golf-ball sized hail? I see this a key point!

THAT takes local knowledge and interpretation. Around here, if they add
"afternoon" to that, they'll be summer squalls over about 50% of the
area. When it's *not* just squalls, they'll split up the AM and PM
forecasts. Below 20%, they're covering their butt. Between 20-40, we
can probably sail around the isolated clouds. 60 or higher, and we'll
at best be able to scoot quickly between cells. 80+ and we'll likely
hunker down.

Problem with forecasts, particularly where we are, is that the weather
above Pooles Island can differ from below. We had that happen Sunday.
Were on the Bush and scooted just ahead of a black cloud to the north
coming south. We got some good winds and a light drizzle, our friends
on the Sassafras (about 5 nm away) got PLASTERED.

4th of July weekend, we had a couple-hour monsoon at Fairlee (eastern
shore). Our friends on the Gunpowder River (western shore) didn't get a
drop.

All this in a 5-nm radius from Pooles Island.

--
Jere Lull
Xan-à-Deux -- Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI trips & tips: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/