Jere Lull wrote:
....
Sorry to directly disagree, but I been there, done that, and know both
areas intimately.

LI gets more storms and hurricanes than the BVI or any other single
"Caribbean" island group ("quotes" allow for including the Bahamas and
Bermuda, which aren't in the Caribbean.)

This seems very doubtful indeed if you're just counting hurricanes and
tropical storms. Lets look at the data:

Since 1851, New York has had 12 strikes from hurricanes, 6 cat 1, 1 cat
2, 5 cat 3, and nothing stronger.

http://www.stormfax.com/hurstate.htm

How about the Carribean:
For the same period, Virgin Gorda had 28 hurricanes, of which 4 of the
were cat 4, stronger than any that hit NY. The Bahamas faired worse,
with 40 hurricanes. In fact, most of the Carribean/Bahamas (and even
Bermuda) has more hurricanes than any place in the US Northeast.

(It is true that the Carribean strikes are measured a bit different, but
since the NY coast is about 120 miles this seems like a fair comparison.)

http://www.stormcarib.com/climatology/freq.htm
which is extracted from:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pdf/NWS-TPC-5.pdf

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/deadly/index.html

As a BVI "expert" for more than a decade, I get many reports. To date, I
have fielded exactly one 'cane experience in the BVI, and their
experience was that they were "forced" into a hurricane hole for one
day. They listened to the local forecasts, chose that day to shop
onshore, and were paid to enjoy the experience. They cared not that they
had to wear their foulies as they walked around.

Their memory is rather short, since the BVI had a number of serious hits
in the late '80s and '90s. Of course, that's the problem with being an
"expert" for the last ten years; the major storms average every 15 years
or so.


A typical Chesapeake squall line is more "interesting" than their
experience. Chesapeake squall lines are a wake-up call for world
cruisers who have been through 'canes or brushed by them. We often
experience 110+ knot winds for an hour or more. A fairly recent one put
28 boats on a local anchorage's beaches.

I certainly wouldn't deny that thunderstorm squalls can be very intense,
but I seriously doubt they sustain 110+ knots for over an hour, and that
this happens "often." I've tried to find any record of extreme squalls
and in fact only one reporting station on the Chesapeake reported record
gusts of over 100 mph.

I have no doubt that "hurricane force gusts" occur somewhere in the Bay
several times a year, but that's not the same 110+ knots sustained for
over an hour.