On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 21:48:00 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:


"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
.. .

On Sat, 1 Mar 2008 20:25:28 -0500, "Eisboch" wrote:



I don't know about that. There's nothing on the horizon to influence it
that way. I'd like to hear your reasoning.

It's pretty simple - it's a huge commodity bubble. There is absoutely
nothing, and I mean nothing, to support these levels in any sense of
the word. It's too much money chasing too little profit - a sort of
currency inflation if you will. If I'm right, and I'm pretty sure I
am, economic data will provide the catalyst for the crash - sometime
around the middle to the end of July.

Hmmmmm..... It sounds like you are basically in agreement with Doug.
Did hell just freeze over?

Well, obviously - six inches of snow last night and no open water
anywhere. :)

I'd add this - out of control information flow is also a function of
this - anything will move the market. If somebody sneezes in Nigeria,
another $.50 to $1. Fog in the Houston shipping channel - another
$.50 to a $1. And it happens more and more often - issues that
wouldn't have affected the price 10 years ago, now can cause 1-2%
changes in price instantly.

There is also the self-fullfilling prophecy aspect of this - goals are
set by people who have a vested interest making sure it happens and
the market does it's best to meet it.

That is classically a bubble - no other way around it.

And as fast as it went up, it will be faster coming down.