Handicapping Iowa...
Harry Krause wrote:
I was surprised but not displeased by Obama's win in Iowa. He's a very
appealing guy, and articulate. My fear is that despite his qualities, in a
general election, whitey isn't going to vote for "the black guy."
Eisboch wrote:
I think your age is showing Harry. �Things have changed, and for the better.
The young crowd really don't have the remnants of racial prejudices that
many in our generation still harbor.
I see merit in both points. I agree with Eisboch that if not the first
then certainly the second generation of people born after the era of
MLK-style struggle for black equality in the US are much less
prejudiced than their parents and grandparents. The young people I
have overheard discussing this issue currently seem to ascribe various
behaviors once many considered endemic to the black race more to
economic circumstances than to any racial predispositions.
Educated, articulate, intelligent people (like the majority of the
current candidates for POTUS) can an do represent a wide swath of
racial and cultural backgrounds. Even if Hillary's campaign ultimately
tanks (possible- people just don't "like her" that miuch), she has
done a lot to pave the way for future qualified women to run for
POTUS. Likewise, Obama's mixed race heritage has dampened any future
"shock" of seeing a very seriously competitive not-entirely-white
contender for the highest office in the land.
But Harry has a good point as well. Elections are decided not by the
general senitment of the population, but by the sentiments of those
who show up at the polls. The young people who are less racist than
the average person in previous generations are notoriously apathetic
voters. College campuses excepted. The oldsters who clearly remember
segregated schools, restuarants, drinking fountains, neighborhoods,
etc (and may still secretly think it wasn't such a bad system) belong
to an age group that more often votes conservative Republican. And
vote they do. Put woman or a non-white on the final ballot, and there
will be caravans of ambulances hauling people to the polling places
from every retirement and nursing home in the red states.
And to be fair, many of those same outdated attitudes also exist among
some members of the older generations in some of the blue states-
perhaps just not quite as commonly as in places where slavery and/or
segregation were once popular legal institutions.
Obama's biggest political disadvantage may ultimately turn out to be
his middle name. I have heard some of the right wing talk hosts stop
using his first name entirely, and emphasize the middle; "In Iowa
today,
presidential wannabe *HUSSEIN* Obama spoke against the basic Christian
principle of Creationsim...."
May the best candidates win the nominations of the respective parties,
and may the best candidate among the two finalists (regardless of
party) win in November.
|