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Short Wave Sportfishing

On Wed, 2 Jan 2008 05:47:17 -0800 (PST),
wrote:

On Jan 2, 8:41*am, DownTime wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Here's what I'm thinking just based on reading things here and there.

Democrats favor Obama, then Edwards, then Clinton, then everybody
else.

I'm thinking Obama gets out with a lead of three or four points over
Edwards in second and Clinton a very close third to Edwards - say
within a point or two. *Everybody else, Dodd, Biden, Krazyinich will
all slide to less than 4% of the vote in total.

Republicans - I'm thnking Romney with an insigificant lead over
Huckabee and Thompson a strong third. *Ron Paultard will show a
surprising 13% of the vote from all the Paulbots that show up from
other states.

Now I need to call my bookie. *:)

Your bookie is taking action on the primaries? That is sad. I'm assuming
even the bookies are also it hard by the current real estate slump.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

So, what is the difference between a slump and a logical correction?
Does it depend on who is in the Whitehouse??

They are both at the same time - it's a definition thing.

Having said that, a slump is defined as a 20% long term drop in market
prices - long term being more than two quarters. A correction is
defined as 10% at any one given time, but considered as proper when it
lasts a quarter.

There is also a hindsight factor in determining a correction - a
day/week drop isn't a correction - month drop of 10% of market prices
is a correction when viewed from the future.

Market psychology is an odd and fascinating subject.

Does it matter who is in the White House? Not really - markets seek
stability - that can be either higher or lower and the net result
generally has nothing to do with politics no matter how many people
try to take credit for a rising economy or assign blame for a
declining economy. When you compare the eight years of the Clinton
Presidency and the upcoming eight years of the Bush Presidency, the
economy acted about the same over time.

The caveat is when political policy affects markets in ways not
foreseen - unintended consequences if you will. During the Clinton
years it was the advent of EBITA depreciation/amortization of the
perceived value of a company's name and trademarks which caused the
tech bubble. For Bush, it will be the appointment of Bernacke to head
the Fed during a time when the Fed needed a seat-of-the-pants
financial operator like Yellen rather than an academic theorist like
Bernacke.