On Nov 14, 5:21 am, "Roger Long" wrote:
You are absolutely right Bob about the profit. The profit dynamics are why
the world is in such a bind about fossil fuel consumption.

I think Joe is after a couple of other things here besides a better cup of
coffee. Would you rather grind your way all the way down to C.A. and back
in a grotty old shrimper or have a nice sailing trip (assuming your are a
sailor and like sailing)? Second, is to make a point about profit and
sustainability.

I did some economic analysis of sailing cargo vessels back in the late 70's
and predicted that it wouldn't make any direct economic sense until fuel got
over the price (unadjusted for inflation) that it is at today.


Yeah back in the 70's this would have never worked..No one gave a
rats ass enough to use spending power to change the way things are
done. Today everyone from GE to HP are leveraging protecting the
enviorment to sell products.. Why because the people spending are
demending it.


With
inflation, we are still a long way from that number. Power cargo vessels
are still operating at speeds where slowing down just 10% would cut their
fuel bills in half. They don't because the over riding factor is how much
total cargo the expensive capital investment of the whole ship can carry in
its economic lifetime. Fuel is still a small part of that. The fuel cost
gets passed on anyway.

Fuel is going to have to become simply unavailable; not just more expensive,
before these dynamics change significantly. My analysis at the time was
based on looking at the cost of a sailing rig with maintenance and
replacement and then calculating the average wind velocity that would
produce the same energy as an equal cost of fuel oil. There simply isn't
that much wind out there except of a few triangular routes. When you then
factor in the total amount of cargo that can be moved within a reasonable
economic lifetime of the whole vessel investment, the numbers go right out
of practicality.

This is based on pure profit based on the current economic system. This
system is skewed out of reality by not fully accounting for costs. Instead
of industry, car drivers, an the rest of us having to capture and clean up
our emissions, others pay invisibly. If things like the cost of the
spectacular increase in asthma were all charged back to their sources, the
economics would become very different. Now that we are beginning to get a
handle on what the costs of global warming will be, apportioning those true
costs back to each gallon of fuel burned would completely change the
economics of sailing cargo vessels. Until society does that, which is about
as likely as eliminating all guns and other weapons from the planet, sailing
cargo vessels are not going to be the norm as long as fuel is available at
any price.

I disagree...People love guns and self protection. The public can
demand greener ways of doing things..the same way they refuse to loose
the right to bear arms. If I can be successful maybe the Chouest and
Lykes of the world will pay attention and invest in sailing cargo
vessels..


Still, the fuel is going to run out. Joe is going to have a good time and
get people thinking about these issues as well as bring back great coffee.
For that, I salute him.

It isn't about the profit. There are container ships for that.

No I beg to differ..As Wilbur put it Profit drive the system, and
unless you can make a profit you are just a side show freak to
corporate America. If you show a profit then others will surely
follow.

Joe


--
Roger Long