On Thu, 11 Oct 2007 00:39:55 -0400, wrote:

I'm estimating 3 or 4 weeks. Once the hurricane season is firmly
behind us we'll get into high gear.


The water temperature is starting to come down.
42003 out in the Gulf a couple hundred miles west of Naples is
reporting 83.5f (down from the 86-87 neighborhood) When it gets below
about 80 the water won't support much of a storm.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

Yes, that's a good indicator.

My primary concern this time of year, and while heading south, are the
tropical lows that form near the Bahamas and the Gulf Stream. They
can go from 0 to 60 in a day, and zipping up the Carolina coast in no
time at all.

A fast moving cross over storm like Wilma can also ruin your entire
day.