Sadder yet, as disgusted as all but the R party diehards and the Limbaugh
dittoheads are becoming with Bush- your party has put up the weakest
candidate
since George McGovern.

I hadn't noticed that.

These comments by noted Republican pollster Rasmussen illustrate why you guys
need a candidate. You should be doing far better than running a dead heat
against a guy now supported by a clear minority of the population (and waiting
for random events to select the next American president). Scariest thing that
Rasmussen says in his comments? "Iraq and the economy are out of George Bush's
control." Yikes. If the CIC doesn't control the war in Iraq, who does?

*******

Is Zogby Right? Is the Election Kerry's to Lose?


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A commentary by Scott Rasmussen


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May 14, 2004--Last Sunday, pollster John Zogby created quite a stir by
announcing his view that the election is now Kerry's to lose. John is a good
pollster and makes many good points, but I respectfully disagree with him on
this one.
John is right to point out that the race has shifted. It used to be the
President's race to lose, but now it is a pure tossup. However, Zogby goes a
bit too far when he says Election 2004 is now Kerry's to lose.

Here's why...

As a starting point, consider the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll.
For the ten weeks since Kerry wrapped up the Democratic nomination on Super
Tuesday, we have polled virtually every night... over 70 separate samples.
Every single time, both candidates have been within 3 percentage points of the
45% mark. Not coincidentally, the survey margin of sampling error is +/-3
percentage points. That shows an amazingly close and stable race.

What little movement we have seen suggests that the President loses a couple of
points every time a new level of bad news comes from Iraq. After a few days or
a week, however, the numbers return to the toss-up range. Senator Kerry loses a
few points every time the spotlight focuses on him. Kerry's numbers bounce back
when the focus returns to the President.

Also, a key part of the Zogby analysis is that "The President’s problem is
further compounded by the fact that he is now at the mercy of situations that
are out of his control." It's absolutely true that the economy and Iraq are out
of the President's control. But, they are also out of Senator Kerry's control.

When all is said and done, it is the reality in Iraq and the economy will
determine the election. If Iraq stabilizes in any way and the economy improves,
the President will be hard to beat. If Iraq deteriorates significantly and the
economy fails to improve, the Senator will have the edge.

Zogby partially addresses this by correctly pointing out that there is a lag in
voter perceptions of the economy (and that the lag hurt the first President
Bush). He believes this lag will also hurt the current President Bush. On this
last point, I am not so sure.

One critical difference between now and 1992 is that the Investor Class is much
bigger. This is significant because Investors respond to economic news (good
and bad) much more quickly than non-Investors... If the economy improves over
the next few months, that will register with Investors.

Adding to the impact, Investors represent a majority of the "soft" support for
both Bush and Kerry. Soft supporters are those who say they will vote for a
candidate but might change their mind. If economic growth (particularly jobs
growth) continues, these Investors will respond and that will benefit the
President.

To wrap this up, I would like to offer my own challenge to the conventional
wisdom. While the polls have shown an incredibly tight race for months, I don't
believe it will be that close on Election Day in November. I'm not envisioning
a landslide, but believe the most likely scenario is for one candidate or the
other to win a modestly comfortable victory.

Why do I say this? Because events in Iraq and the economy will determine the
outcome. Those situations will change for better or worse and voters will
decide accordingly. If they go one direction, Bush wins. If they go the other
way, Kerry wins.

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