MAGAZINE SHOCK: REPUBLICANS WILL HOLD CONGRESS
Sat Oct 21 2006 18:05:12 ET

BARRON'S COVER Survivor!
The GOP Victory

By JIM MCTAGUE

JUBILANT DEMOCRATS SHOULD RECONSIDER their order for confetti and
noisemakers, BARRON's claims in their next edition. The Democrats, as widely
reported, are expecting GOP-weary voters to flock to the polls in two weeks
and hand them control of the House for the first time in 12 years -- and
perhaps the Senate, as well. Even some Republicans privately confess that
they are anticipating the election-day equivalent of Little Big Horn. Pardon
our hubris, but we just don't see it.

Our analysis -- based on a race-by-race examination of campaign-finance
data -- suggests that the GOP will hang on to both chambers, at least
nominally. We expect the Republican majority in the House to fall by eight
seats, to 224 of the chamber's 435. At the very worst, our analysis
suggests, the party's loss could be as large as 14 seats, leaving a one-seat
majority. But that is still a far cry from the 20-seat loss some are
predicting. In the Senate, with 100 seats, we see the GOP winding up with
52, down three.