wrote

So as I understand it, the belief now is that the two parts broke
apart much earlier than previously believed?

The hull actually broke within a few minutes of the time everyone
agrees that the ship sank. The significant point is how much longer
she might have remained afloat.

Conventional wisdom, prior to analysis of the pieces we documented,
(at least one of them had been seen but they had never been
photographed or studied in a useful way) was that the hull failure was
simply an event that punctuated the final moments. The ship would have
been under water within moments anyway and the hull simply broke as
she went into a longitudinal "capsize" and began her final plunge. It
would have been very dramatic but not have changed the outcome very
much.

The low angle at which we now believe the hull fractured has some
startling implications for the human part of the story. When the hull
failed it let in massive amounts of water which finished the sinking
process in minutes. If this happened at the 11 - 13 degree angle we
believe, than it took place at a time that the ship's major damaged
compartments were fully flooded and the inflow of water had greatly
slowed as it worked its way in through semi watertight interior
divisions and deck openings. The ship was doomed to eventually sink
but would have remained afloat for some finite period of additional
time.

The big question at this point is how much longer the ship would have
floated. She might have floated long enough for the rescue ship to
have arrived a couple hours later. It is not highly probable but
enough within the realm of possibility that we have to consider it. If
she had floated for just a portion of that time, there would have been
time for the half loaded lifeboats to consider the situation and
possibly return to rescue more passengers.

Even if the ship would only have floated for a few more minutes, the
hull fracture precipitating the final plunge instead of the reverse
greatly alters our understanding of the human experience for those who
were there. The low angle fracture would have occurred at a time when
the ship at least appeared to be in a relatively stable attitude and
flooding had slowed. This was after the last boat had left and there
is historical evidence that most of those left aboard were inside
where it was warm and the lights were still on. Remember, there was no
public address system or other means of mass communication. Nobody
knew what was going on.

Suddenly, in the midst of this period of apparent calm and stability,
when many certainly thought that they were simply awaiting rescue
aboard this unsinkable ship, there was a mass exodus from the warmth
and light into the cold and dark. What precipitated this panic and
rush to the stern of the ship? We believe that it was probably the
loud noises, impulsive shiver underfoot, and sudden tilting forward as
the hull girder fractured. Just minutes after this illusion of safety
was shattered, the ship was gone and hundreds were in the water.

We are working on a second show to air next spring and have uncovered
new information that should make for some block busting revelations.
Stay tuned.

--

Roger Long