Nutsy,
You should be able to read the local winds by just looking at the water
surface. It is the Sailor's Way. The 15 knt is mid force 4 the 11.5 is
still force 3. Upper force 3 you should be seeing white caps starting to
show. Your picture doesn't show white caps but it does show wavelets. A
Sailor would know that you were sailing in Force3 at the present time
the picture was taken.
It really doesn't make a difference, just trying to help a little. Looks
like a Ball was being had by all.
Nutsy, when I was just dinking around and seen the wind building, I'd
roll the headsail to about 80% and add twist to the main to keep
"Pneuma" acting like a Lady.
My buddy with the 35.5 Benny would do the same with his main. He'd put
enough twist until the Main was just about luffing at the head. The
Racing Fraternity would ask why he didn't reef, He'd say if it get any
worst he would. He'd watch the heel meter.
Nutsy, my sailing information for today, take or ****can it. Up to you.
Happy sailing
OT
http://community.webtv.net/tassail/ThomPage