When I used to glide, I once worked out that for an under-40
male, being
a driver roughly doubled your annual mortality risk, and gliding
roughly
doubled it again. But on a hourly basis, gliding is certainly
more risky
than driving.
OK. Did some research from US statistics, causality alone, 2002,
all within 20% (cos I'm a back of an envelope person first time
round):
-------------------------------------
Cars.
38,000 deaths pa, (10 times as many injuries).
15 per 100,000 population (UK, about 7/100,000)
1.5 per 100,000,000 miles
4.5 per 10,000,000 hours
Source:
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/
--------------------------------------
Boats (12,000,000 - of which sail and Aux sail 40%)
Deaths pa 800 (5 times as many injuries)
0.25 per 100,000 of population
7 per 100,000 boats
2.8 per 10,000,000 hours (heroic assumption; 250hrs per boat pa)
However: sailboats are only 1% of deaths!
Source:
http://www.uscgboating.org/statistic...stics_2002.pdf
---------------------------------------
General Aviation (220,000 aircraft, 30,000,000 hours flown)
Deaths pa 600 (1,800 accidents)
0.7 deaths per 100,000 population
270 deaths per 100,000 aircraft
200 deaths per 10,000,000 flying hours
Source:
http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/2004/ARG0401.pdf
----------------------------------------------
First, don't shout about the detail. I said within 20%. Now, some
points of interest:
1. I'm very surprised that US stats show nearly twice as many
road deaths as UK per whatever. Also the small motor boat death
rates in US are far higher as a proportion than in UK.
2. I'm now quite clear why insurance rates for general aviation
are so high, and why boat insurance is similar to car insurance
rates.
3. I think on a per hour basis, car driving in UK is about quits
with boats, though sailboats may be safer! That would take more
research, and I'm in Easter Holiday trouble already.
4. None of this takes account of person to person skill
variations. Surveys have routinely shown that 80% of car drivers
believe that their skills are above the average, if not
exceptional. Pilots are similar. I've never asked sailors - just
examined them. So I've got a good idea what the average skill
levels of examinee sailors are - and they're the skilled minority.
My view is that the personal skill levels are not relevant to boat
safety - I think 'fear factor' is more important. Avoiding things
you can't do, or being very careful when trying them. Most boat
deaths are due to not wearing buoyancy aids, or being under the
affluence of incohol (see reference).
--
JimB
http://www.jimbaerselman.f2s.com/
Describing some Greek and Spanish cruising areas