Hello? Hello?


Bert Robbins wrote:
I'm here now.

In spirit? Is the light on?



There are already other means of producing energy. In fact, our President
gave a speech earlier this year on the wisdom of expanding them.


What means are there for producing energy for automobiles and trucks that
don't require an extension cord? And, are those means as efficient and cost
effective as oil?


Sure, many. People have been running cars on methane, coal
gas, and such, for decades... in fact, that's how Jacque
Cousteau invented the aqualung: he adapted a pressure
regulator commonly used on cars.

As for cost effective... you can get methane for free. Hard
to beat that.



And nobody is being "forced" to do anything about oil or alternatives.
It's a matter of cost & profitability. Oil has been very cheap for a long
time... that is changing as oil supply declines and demand goes up.


The supply is not declining, OPEC can increase the supply at will

Actually, they can increase up to the limit of reserve
capacity... which is decreasing every day.


Are you under the impression that there will be oodles & oodles of oil,
until one morning in the distant future, there will suddenly be none?


I thought that was your position.

You haven't been paying attention, have you?

... I believe that we are 100 years away from
running out of oil.

Wrong. We will probably NEVER "run out" of oil. However, we
will get far enough out on the bell curve that the oil
supplies will get smaller & more expensive... to the point
where everything depending on oil comes to a halt.




... But, your ilk are of the consensus that we will be
running out of oil in a couple of years.


Who exactly is "my ilk" again?

You seem to be determined to make as many wrong statements
as possible.


That's not the way it works. As with many other things in nature, the
amount of oil which can be pumped out of the ground follows a bell curve.


No, the current methods of pumping oil out of the ground may follow a bell
curve.

Yep.
And so do all possible methods of pumping oil out of the ground.

... Next year there may be a technological advance that will allow us to
pump oil out of wells that are not cost effective to continue pumping today.


That may be true, but the supply will still follow a bell
curve. Increasing technology shifts the curve but does not
change the nature of the relationships.



Look it up for yourself, don't listen to me.
Google "Hubbert Peak" and see.


One man opinion.


Oh yeah, like the law of gravity is one man's opinion.



President Bush and I disagree on many issues

Then why did you vote for him? Are you a self-destructive fool?




If we reduce our use of oil it will just mean that there is more oil for
China and India.


That's a great attitude... "let's waste more of it first!"

How about thinking a little bit- if we move to renewable &
cleaner energy sources, then we'll be in a commanding
position while they are stuck with diminishing & costly oil
supplies.

Do you have to be a dog in the manger, or can you think
constructively?



2- make profits on other sources of energy


I don't understand what you are saying? An economic incentive is clear
because we can make profits form other sources of energy?

What sources of energy are you talking about?


Many.
What part of "make profits" did you not understand? Are you
a Communist?




3- avoid economic dislocation & disruption as oil becomes


Huh, there is an economic incentive to avoid economic dislocation and
disruption as oil becomes what?


Sorry, typo. But it would seem obvious, since what we are
talking about is decreasing oil reserves.




Really? I thought that the supply of oil was going to run out in 30
years,

Do you know exactly what day? I will want to sell short that morning,
thanks.


No, your side of this issue wouldn't tell us the exact day.


Funny thing, this issue doesn't really have sides. It's not
like our President is going to save up a special oil supply
just for the Bush-Cheney Cheerleaders. When we run low on
oil, we *all* run low.



The U.S. (which used to be an oil exporter) hit it's oil peak in the
1970s, which was accurately predicted by Dr. Hubbert in the 1940s. The
global oil supply/demand situation is a bit more complex. However, it
seems likely that Hubbert's math was still pretty good.


We hit what oil peak in the 1970's?


(talking slowly) In the 1970s, U.S. oil production peaked.
That means the amount of oil pumped out of the ground
increased intil that time, and afterward decreased.


Pretty good at what? Has technology improved in the last 60 years? Myabe
someone should do another study.


Hello? Hello? Is there anything other than a dial tone at
the other end?

What do you think the oil companies have been doing for the
past 60 years?



Now, bonus question: do you suppose that with the ramping up of China and
the other Pacific Rim economies, that world oil demand is higher or lower
than Hubbert plotted from a vantage point of approx 50 years ago?


What does it matter? According to you we will just run out sooner. Would you
say 30 years from now is about right?


I don't know when the oil supply will get scanty enough to
be considered to have "run out." You don't really learn
much, do you? Have you understood anything at all about this
discussion so far? Who has said that oil will "run out"?

Frankly, I don't have much faith in predicting these kinds
of things... the data is too uncertain and the biggest
variable is human behavior, which is a total wild card. I
expect the petro-fueled economy to go on for at least
another ten years, but not for fifty. In ten years, the
price for a barrel of crude oil might be $300, it might be
$30,000.

But, considering that there is definitely a finite amount of
oil in the ground, we *will* get to a point where it is too
scarce & expensive to fuel our civilization. Therefor, we
either need a different source of energy or we just give up
on civilization. Take your pick.




You reactionary liberals are the best at fear mongering.

I'm a "reactionary liberal" now? Gee, last week I was a
moonbat. Are you neo-cons good at anything other than
anme-calling?

DSK