View Single Post
  #4   Report Post  
posted to alt.sailing.asa
Bart Senior
 
Posts: n/a
Default Upcoming Sunspot Cycle

What I find most significant is the last cycle had
several major coronal mass ejections. There must
be a connection between these solar cycles and
Earth weather.

For example, an 11 year cycle--22 years if you
consider that solar cycles tend to alternate in
intensity, corresponds somewhat with the North
Atlantic/South Atlantic flip flop in temperature
cycle which is roughly 20 years.

Coronal Mass Ejections (CME's) we've experienced
in the recent past have had more immediate effects.
A Japanese satellite was knocked out by a CME
pointed 90 degrees to the Earth.

While no one considered the power outage that hit
the central US to be caused by a CME, I checked
online and one did occur a few days beforehand.
This was on Aug 13th in 2003. A CME occurred
that year that was among the largest recorded. It
was pointed at 90 deg to the location of the Earth.

At some point a CME will be emitted directly at
the Earth and overwhelm the Earth's geo-magnetic
field, which is presently weakening. The results
could be devastating and potentially knock out a
great many satelites, cause surges in power lines.

Disturances in the Ionosphere affect both GPS
and SSB radio communications. How would
you like to be caught without communications
and be forced to navigate with a handmade
astrolab? Keep you sextant and learn how to
use it.
Scientist don't really know what to expect, but
most are in agreement, these events are rare enough
that we have yet to experience one in the technological
age.

It is noteworthy that the Earths geomagnetic field has
long been used to predict the timing and strength of the
Sunspot cycle.

http://www.spacetoday.org/SolSys/Sun/Sunspots.html
..

At present we are close to the minimum which I'll
estimate will occur next year if it hasn't occurred
already.

http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad...07_predict.txt



Quoted from :
http://science.msfc.nasa.gov/ssl/pad/solar/sunspots.htm

"Early records of sunspots indicate that the Sun
went through a period of inactivity in the late 17th
century. Very few sunspots were seen on the Sun
from about 1645 to 1715 (38 kb JPEG image).

Although the observations were not as extensive
as in later years, the Sun was in fact well observed
during this time and this lack of sunspots is well
documented. This period of solar inactivity also
corresponds to a climatic period called the "Little
Ice Age" when rivers that are normally ice-free
froze and snow fields remained year-round at lower
altitudes. There is evidence that the Sun has had
similar periods of inactivity in the more distant past.
The connection between solar activity and terrestrial
climate is an area of on-going research."



"Vito" wrote

"Bart Senior" wrote
http://dsc.discovery.com/news/briefs...nspot_spa.html


Ahhh....errr....
"It will answer questions that users of space weather forecasting ask us

all the
time," he said, such as when will the next solar cycle begin, how strong

will it
be and how long will it last.

When?