East Asia allies doubt U.S. could win war with China

Chinese troops lined up for a review by President Bush and China's President
Hu Jintao on Nov. 20 in Beijing (Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP)

The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is
that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment
relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries
such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps
up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key
allies in the region.

Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor
Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose
any war with China.

"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if
each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear
weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as
it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives,"
Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic
and International Studies.

Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are
"extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional
attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear
weapons against Asian and American cities-even at the risk of a massive U.S.
retaliation.

The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of
Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After
2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.

"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The
step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."

Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread
skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia,
India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq
has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.

"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and
clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western
Iraq.

As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to
bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush
administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense
capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military
presence from that country.

On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The
two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan
and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.

During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior
U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy
Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the
realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.

For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable
democracy with free elections.

"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.