"Mark Browne" wrote in message
news:bHH2c.516919$na.1173373@attbi_s04...

"NOYB" wrote in message
om...

"Harry Krause" wrote in message

news:c3dhc2g=.606e7062a1d4900a89f1e2a9d725c4c8@107 8496293.nulluser.com...

the recession ended in
November 2001.*

This bears repeating. The recession ended in November 2001...which
means
the economy has been improving for over 2 years.

Employment stats are a lagging indicator. We've had 8 straight months
of
*GAINS* in employment. 8 months!

I don't care if the number is 1000 or 100000. Either way, more people
are
working today than the month before...and the month before that...and
the
month before that...dating all the way back to June 2003.

You guys were saying "3 million jobs". Then it was 2.5 million. Now
it's
2.35 million. Bush could use the Dem's own ads to show the improvement
in
the job market. By November, he can say: "first they said 3 million,
then
2.5 million, then 2.35...and now they say 1.5 million. We've gained 1.5
million jobs in the last 16 months. Why stop now?"


When Bush puts this trend on a chart and holds it up before the American
people, the message will be "Taxes were too high before I took office,
and
manufacturing started laying off people en masse starting in August
2000...5
months before I took office. My administration led the fight to cut
taxes
in early 2003, and since then, we've had 16 straight months of job
growth.
Why would you want John Kerry to raise your taxes and stop the growth?"

Historical data showing 16 straight months of job growth will completely
destroy the argument that we're on the wrong track economically. Only a
fool would make such an assertion.

Dr. Tooth,

I will add that I have two sons seeking work right now. So far I can't
fault
the effort they are putting into their search. The pickings seem pretty
lean. Tell me again, where are all these jobs you are crowing about?

Just for fun, comment on the crop of reservists returning to the job
market
when the come back from the big sandbox?

After you answer that, tell me what will happen when this years crop of
graduates hits the streets and can't find meaningful jobs?

Since you are such a wiz with figures, how much of this spectacular growth
has anything to do with little Bushes tax cuts, and how much is due to the
unusually low interest rates?

I dunno. When corporate tax returns are all submitted and accounted for,
let's see how much businesses spent on their Section 179 expenses...which
was increased to $100,000 in 2003.


I was just reading how the American population is borrowing money to
finance
their purchases at a rate never seen before. Much of this is borrowing on
the inflated values of homes combined with low interest rates; this is a
one-time trick and I don't expect to see it repeated. The rest is massive
credit card debt. At some point this personal debt load will choke
personal
finances to the point where the average consumer simply can't take on
additional debt. When these people stop living beyond their means and
start
to simple survive while they service the debt they have taken on, they
won't
buy as much as they do now. What do you have to say about this potential
blot you your rosy view of the future growth?

I'm in the process of purchasing a new home and a new car. After I close,
you will have just described my personal situation perfectly...except for
the credit cards, which I pay off in full every month. In due time,
however, the short-term debt will be retired, and my income will rise...and
I'll be spending again. That's the normal cycle for most people.


For the 10 point extra credit, what will happen when the interest rates
start to come back up? Address home sales, big ticket sales, and corporate
investments.

The giant jumps in Quarterly GDP growth that we've been seeing will begin to
moderate and level off. The stock market will see yearly returns of
10-15%...instead of the 35-40% returns we've seen in the 12 months.