Your explanation of futures is largely accurate, except that each time
they're bid up, the price at the pumps rises. This should infuriate you.


"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,

Oil futures are based upon the best guess of it's future worth. They do
not determine what someone will actually pay for the oil in the future.
If oil futures are bid up to $120 a barrel, that does not mean that will
be the market price when the future is due. It is normally that the price
of commodity will not be the same price as that on a futures contract.
The difference is the profit or lose realized by the person holding the
futures contract.

While it is easy to hold stock certificates in a bank, when it comes time
to pay off on your futures contract, most people have to sell the oil,
they do not have empty tankers sitting around to hold the oil waiting for
a better price. They will have to sell the oil at the market price, which
is determined by supply and demand. Trust me, if the US reduced it
consumption by 25% and China reduced it's consumption by 25% we would see
one hell of a drop in oil prices.






"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
True, but this does not address the current issue: The price of oil, as
it stands today, is not related to supply or demand. It is where it is
because the price has been bid up to current levels based purely on
speculation. This is no different than the way tech stocks were inflated
all out of proportion a few years ago.


"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
As China continues to expand it manufacture capacity and it's citizens
continue to increase their consumption of oil, the price of oil will
continue to increase. I hate this as much as you do, because I too buy
gas and heat my home. The truth is the only way we can change this is
to find alternative energy and more efficient ways to use oil. If we
nationalize the oil industry, it is not going to change the long term
problem. If we elect a democratic house, senate and president, it still
is not going to change the long term direction. Al Gore wrote a book (I
think it was about 10 yrs ago) that forecasted this exact situation we
are faced with today.

It is time to face the facts, oil is a finite resource and we are using
it up very fast.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Well....at least we know that the vehicles from the big 3 will be gone
within a few years. As far as the figures for the big trucks, I think
you have to subtract those sold to people who actually MUST have such
vehicles for their work. That would leave us with real numbers for the
yahoos who buy "a hemi" just because they feel like it.

"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
I know you prefer to talk to the experienced salepeople to determine
buying patterns, but I found it easier to look at sales history.
These gas guzzlers purchased in 2004 will continue to guzzle gas for
the next 15 - 20 yrs.



Best-selling vehicles

Car First-half 2004 sales Base
price
. Ford F-Series 432,969 $19,920
. Chevrolet Silverado 322,907 $19,485
. Dodge Ram pickup 223,609 $20,365
. Toyota Camry 213,625 $19,560
. Honda Accord 192,106 $16,390
. Ford Explorer 168,059 $23,690
. Honda Civic 162,483 $13,500
. Ford Taurus 144,035 $20,320
. Chevrolet Impala 139,460 22,395
. Dodge Caravan 131,367 $18,995



"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
Stop into a Toyota or Honda dealer, ask to speak briefly to their
most
experienced salesperson, and ask what's selling. Or, you could just
look
around. I agree that too many gas pigs are sold to people who have
absolutely zero need for a truck of any kind, but that doesn't negate
the
fact that cars like Corollas and Civics are selling like hotcakes,
and
they're not even in the category of "high efficiency", compared to
vehicles like the Prius (50+ mpg).



"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Doug,
What is silly is your inability to see the obvious. There is one
reason
for the increase of gas prices. There is an increase in demand,
without
any increase in supply. Consumers will not pay for better fuel
efficient
cars until the cost of the gas guzzlers make it worth their while.
The
fact that a few people buy fuel efficient cars, does not negate the
fact
that too many people are buying gas guzzling SUV and Trucks, while
keeping their home thermostat set at 78 degrees.

Heck even Al Gore who was dumb as dirt, knew you had to raise the
cost of
gas to make it economically viable to find alternative energy
sources.
Al's idea was to tax gas $3/gal and use the tax to find alternative
energy.


"Doug Kanter" wrote in message
...
"Juan Valdez" wrote in message
...
Most of the people in rec.boats who complain about the price of
gas,
are driving trucks with low mpg and boats that burn tons of gas.
If
they really were concerned about the price of gas, they would buy
a
hybrid car and a either a trawler or sailboat.

They refuse to see the obvious. Consumers will not buy a fuel
efficient car or boat, or pay for alternative energy sources until
the
cost of petrol fuels make it worth while to do so.

That's silly. There are plenty of fuel efficient cars being sold.
It's
been that way for years. Even a basic Corolla gets over 30 mpg.
Same
with models from Honda. Dealers don't need to whore these out with
stupid "employee discount" offers, as do the big 3.