Middle East Side Story

By Richard Cohen
Tuesday, March 1, 2005; Page A15

At the moment it seems the semi-official composer for the Middle East is, of all
people, Leonard Bernstein. The song I have in mind is his "Something's Coming"
from "West Side Story," which, with Stephen Sondheim's lyrics conveying a sense
of anxious anticipation -- "Could it be? Yes, it could/Something's coming,
something good" -- announces that something momentous is stirring: democracy,
freedom, independence. Something. Or, as an Arab acquaintance just e-mailed me
from the region, "I can smell the winds of change in the air wherever I go."
Alas, because he is a businessman, he does words, not music.

But the music is unmistakable. In Saudi Arabia, where I spent several days last
week, itsy-bitsy municipal elections are being held -- not Jeffersonian
democracy, I grant you, but eventful enough that one man I talked with insisted
on taking his little boy to the polls. History was being made, he strongly felt.

In Egypt, the country's perpetual and eternal president, Hosni Mubarak,
announced that he would amend the constitution so that he might have opposition
when he runs for reelection. Normally he ekes out a victory with about 90
percent of the vote. Next time -- who knows?

Even in Syria, the regime -- maybe the region's most goonish -- has recently
showed signs of accommodation. It first announced that it would someday pull its
troops out of Lebanon (just not yet, if you please) and then arrested Saddam
Hussein's half-brother, Sabawi Ibrahim Hassan, and 29 other desperados who
allegedly have been financing and directing the insurgency in their native Iraq.

There's more. The Palestinians held a free election and so, importantly, did the
Iraqis, and both were seen by anyone in the region with a TV set and a satellite
dish -- which is to say almost everyone. Those viewers might have wondered --
they must have wondered -- why the same could not be done in their own
countries. Finally, Lebanese Christians, Muslims and Druze, once at each other's
throats, have apparently united in the effort to boot Syria out of their
country.

Given what's happening, it's understandable that many eyes have shifted to
Washington with a new sense of appreciation. Could it be that the neocons were
right and that the invasion of Iraq, the toppling of Hussein and the holding of
elections will trigger a political chain reaction throughout the Arab world? It
would be the Middle East equivalent of what happened in Eastern Europe when the
Soviet Union finally sank to its knees, took one last breath and crumbled.
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Of course, Cohen couldn't stop here. He had to put a negative spin on the story
by suggesting the outcome to all this may not be what we really want. He doesn't
mention the other side of that coin - the outcome may be better than sliced
bread.

Ah, if one is a liberal, and the administration is conservative, then pessimism
*must* reign.

John H