riverman, what are the odds of disaster? Is that what we are trying to
figure out? How far can we go to the edge of the safety net, and not
fall out. For each of us the safety net is at a different point, all
things considered!

I came across this interesting article that I think might apply:

The Odds of Disaster -
http://tinyurl.com/646ot

One way of analysing the - go/no go - scenario, is to consider
threshold factor. Such as threshold temps when hazardous results are
certain. Can you as an experienced kayaker, define those thresholds for
those of us who don't have the experience.

Brian Nystroms experience recently of the gasp reflex at 50F would
indicate a higher risk before cold water hypothermia would occur. What
are the specific risks, and what are the thresholds. A swim in a class
IV tropical river may be that after a long swim, you get chewed on by
pirrana, or crocadile, but the actual swim wasn't so bad.

We still may go, but we will have a better idea what to expect.

What is beyond a blind turn none of us can ascertain, but that is the
thrill of life! TnT