"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...
I'm hoping Strategic Vision is right:
Bush leads in FL (+4), OH (+2), WI (+2), IA (+3), MI (+1). He's tied in
MN and NJ. He trails in PA by 1 point.

That'd be a nightmare scenario for Kerry. Bush would have 313 electoral
votes to Kerry's 225. If NJ and MN went to Bush, he'd have 338 to Kerry's
200. If Hawaii went to Bush, he'd have 342 to 196.


Quinnipiac has Bush up by 8 in Fla, and tied in Pa.

Mich I think is a coin flip. The mayor of Detroit has done NOTHING wrt the
GOTV.....so a lot will depend on how much of a turnout Wayne Co. has.
Kerry pullout out of much of Mich way to early, and now has to spend time
here tonight.

Fla. looks pretty solid, and Oh. is moving more and more in the right
direction....as long as there is not too much ballot fraud in Cleveland.

Bush rally support has been strong with 20-30 k turn outs, while Kerry doing
about have that.


I predict Bush will win FL, OH, WI, IA, and NM. PA, MI, MN, NJ, and HI
will go to Kerry.

Total predicted EC: 296 to 242 (not quite the 301 that I predicted
earlier because NH seems to have swung back to Kerry).



"P.Fritz" wrote in message
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"NOYB" wrote in message
...

"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The only numbers that will matter Tuesday night are the Electoral
College
results. One of the candidates will need 270 votes to be elected.
Polling
in each state shows that John Kerry will have the votes to be elected
president. See http://www.electoral-vote.com/.


Correction:
Polling in each state shows that George Bush will have the votes to be
elected President.

See: http://www.electionprojection.com

Your site uses a single poll to project the winner...and he seems to
arbitrarily pick the most favorable poll for Kerry. For instance,
today's Mason-Dixon and Rasmussen polls showed Bush ahead in Florida by
4 points and 1 point, respectively. Zogby shows Kerry up 2. Who does
the webmaster of electoral-vote.com give Florida to? Kerry...based
solely on Zogby's poll.

www.electionprojection.com uses an average of the major polls. So does
www.realclearpolitics.com ...and if you take an average of the major
polls, Bush is leading in the popular vote *and* the Electoral College.

In fact, if you look at the electoral-vote.com site where he uses
*averaged* data, you'll see that Bush is leading even at
electoral-vote.com.

See: http://www.electoral-vote.com/fin/oct31z.html

It looks like the polling groups are 'assigning' undetermined voters to
each canidate according to who they think they are goinig to break
for....I heard one poll was as much as 9-1 in favor of
kerry...................it is no wonder there is such a wide swing in the
polls..............