"P.Fritz" wrote in message
...

"J. Smithers" wrote in message
news:Fvshd.449874$mD.384629@attbi_s02...
Fritz,
You may be correct, but would you or NYOB, be willing to bet a thousand
dollars on the GOTV benefiting the Repub. or even Bush winning? That is
a high risk bet in anyone's mind. Remember the odds the bookmakers are
giving do not reflect anything except the way people are betting. Their
objective with the spread and odds, is to get 50% to bet one way and 50%
to bet the other way.

To many variables, but to the point that NYOB was making, things have
changed since 2000, and the pollsters gauging things based on that
election are making mistakes.

The pollsters should look at the trend from the 1996 election to the 2000
election, where the electorate grew more and more Republican...and then look
at the time from the 2000 until the 2002 election, where it became even
more so. That's why guys like Zogby were waaaaay off base with their 2002
predictions. They didn't take into account that there was a change in the
make-up of the electorate...and they're repeating that mistake once again.