"NOYB" wrote in message
link.net...

"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Snafu" wrote in message
...
The poll used to project a state on www.electoral-vote.com is the
latest
poll based on the average of the range of dates on which the survey was
taken. He's very clear about that.

He's lying and you believed it. Check for yourself. The Mason-Dixon
poll
is more current than the Zogby poll, even when you average the range of
dates. Mason-Dixon has Bush up 4 in Florida, and up 1 in Minnesota
(it's
right there in the first table on his website). Your guy uses Zogby's
numbers for both states...thus giving both states to Kerry. What a
farce!


Last week Zogby was your favorite pollster. Silly boy.

No. I posted Zogby's numbers for you, Harry, since he seems to be the
only
pollster you'll believe. If that's the case, then your boy Kerry is in
trouble.
This election is about ebbs and flows for each campaign. Zogby uses a
3-day rolling average tracking poll. For today's poll, he's using data
from the 29th, 30th,
and 31st...and has dropped Thursday Oct. 28th's results off the average.
And guess what?
Bush actually gained from an uptick in his favor. That means Bush's
number have
been improving while Kerry's are dropping. By tomorrow morning, my
prediciton is
that Zogby will have Bush up 3...which is exactly what Rove is predicting.
I'm a little more
optimistic and think Bush will the popular vote by 4 points.

Listening to Zogby on the radio this morning, his partisanship was
showing......claiming things were trending to kerry, and it is obvious he is
counting on a the 'newly registered' to swing heavily for kerry.

My big question is how many of the 'newly registered' that were signed up by
paid collectors are (A) legitimate voters (B) will actually show up (C) vote
for kerry???





You're really putting too much of your cold heart into these last-minute
polls. The election is a dead heat. What matters Tuesday is voter
turnout.

Not really. I think Zogby's weighting is flawed, but his tracking polls
at least
show consistent trends in the polls. There is no doubt that Kerry had
better momentum
(at least relative to the week before) going into the weekend...but Bush
has better momentum
heading into eleciton day.



Got any links to real polls along the I-4 Corridor?

I don't know...and even if there were, I don't that that any any of the
locally-sponsored polls are worth a damn.
Most showed a statistical dead-heat between Jeb and McBride heading into
the 2002 election...and Jeb won by 13
points.