"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
"Harry Krause" wrote in message
news:wMefd.305313$MQ5.297316@attbi_s52...
Let me change that bet. $1.00 is too cheap and makes it look like I
don't
have confidence in my boy. Let's make it $10,000


What do you consider as "even"? Would a Bush lead 48.5% to 48% be
considered "even"? What about a lead that is still within the margin
of
error (a 7-point lead with a +/-3.5 point margin of error)?


Thursday is a long way off from next Tuesday. And Thursday's poll is a
retrospective look of where we were at today. By Thursday, you'll be
right.
But a lot can happen over the weekend. By next Monday, Bush will be
back
up.
If you set Monday as the day, I'll take your bet...but we'll make it an
even
grand. If by some unforseen event, I lose and kerry wins, I'll need
the
money for the huge tax increase coming my way. If I win, you'll need
the
money for anti-depressants.







"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
NOYB wrote:
Rasmussen's poll missed the actual 2000 election results by 11 1/2
points.
Zogby was within 1 1/2 points, and Gallup was within 2 1/2.
Currently,
those two have Bush up 3 and 5 points, respectively.


Betcha a dollar that all but the Gallup poll are even by
Thursday...as
of tonight, the WashPost poll flipped...with Kerry a point ahead.






I bet you a dollar. The "Obsessed with Harry" asshole picked it up from
there...check the headers.

He's in blocked senders list so it doesn't happen again. I gotta' admit
it
that it was kind of funny though.



So, I take it we're on for a buckeroo. Even to me is a spread of a
point, excluding the MoE..like 48 to 47. For a pre-election poll, that's
dead even...there are too many factors unknown.

Nope. Even means 48 to 48...or 47.3 to 47.9. It must be less than (not
equal to) one point. A one-point lead is still a lead. So what do we do?
Take an average? Of which polls? Do we include Nader?

Here's my proposal:

Include Nader

Average Zogby, Rasmussen, CNN/Gallup, and Washington Post. Currently, the
average of the aforementioned polls show a 1.75 point lead for Bush. If
Kerry is within a point of Bush (or ahead) by Monday, then you win. If Bush
is leading by 1 point or more, I win.