"Harry Krause" wrote in message
...
thunder wrote:
On Sun, 17 Oct 2004 20:37:24 +0000, Jon Smithe wrote:

This really surprises me. I thought we Kerry making Bush look like a
dummy in the 3 debates it would be enough to swing the noncommittal to
his
side. It appears he has lost all of the increase from his first 2
debates.

I wouldn't weight the Gallup poll to seriously. Gallup polls are designed
to be sensitive to movement, and admittedly, can exaggerate a party's
turnout.

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/45/news-bearman.php

This is an extremely close race. It will probably be decided by Ohio or,
once again, Florida, or, perhaps again, the Supreme Court.



Gallup was "called out" a couple of weeks ago for packing its caller
lists with significantly more Republicans than Democrats.

Most of the polls are very close, and probably will remain that way. I
don't think the polls in this election are really reflecting the
significant changes in the voter base the last few years, or the big
push for voter registration that has been taking place.

More than in recent years, voter turnout is going to play a major role.
I'm no prognosticator, but my impression is that the Democrats are more
fired up than the Republicans. If that remains the case, and if the
Republicans don't get away with too much election day cheating, we may
well have a new President-election in about two weeks.

HEre's an interesting data point: one of my relatives, someone who has
voted Republican since Dwight Eisenhower, is sitting out this election.
He cannot stomach George W. Bush.

Something the Democrats have recently realized is that they may be losing
some of the Jewish vote that they had so readily relied upon in past
elections. In 2000, Bush carried only 19% of the Jewish vote in Florida..
I've seen recent polls where Bush is currently getting the support of
anywhere from 24 to 35% of the Jewish vote in Florida. Since 90% of Jews
are registered to vote (compared to 2/3's of the general population), they
make up roughly 5% of the Florida vote. That equates to nearly 300,000
votes (based on 2000 results). If Bush got 19% (56,645 votes) in 2000, and
increases that to 30% (90,000) this time, that means that he gains nearly
24,000 votes (and Kerry gets 24,000 fewer votes than Gore got). It'll take
a helluva lot of Harry's relatives staying home in order to make up for a
48,000 vote swing towards Bush.

Don't think it can happen? Just look at the comments from guys like Ed Koch
and Joe Lieberman regarding Bush's pro-Israel policies:

" We also should not forget that President Bush, in my opinion, has been the
greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House " --Ed Koch

"We are dealing with a president who's had a record of strong, consistent
support for Israel. You can't say otherwise,"-- Joseph Lieberman in Delray
Beach, Fla