Gould 0738 wrote:
A note from that site:

His data is heavily weighted with pre-debate numbers:

Not a lot of change in the state polls right now. I installed new software
yesterday to average recent polls per state going back 30 days. There was a
create hue and cry that this was a bad thing because the race is in such a
state a flux that polls that old are meaningless. In the middle of the day I
changed the look-back parameter to 7 days, so now only polls within the past
week are used. I agree with many readers that 30 days is too much. If I were a
Republican, I would have said "I am going to stay the course, even though I am
wrong." Fortunately, I am a Democrat so I can flip-flop all I want. Let's see
how a 7-day look-back window works. The idea was to prevent the map from
changing wildly every day. Averaging introduces some stability, but also
introduces lag in responding to current events. Finding the right parameter
might be tricky.


For many months, I have stated here over and over that the polls were
volatile, more so than in the past, and that many of them were simply
not reflective of the dramatic changes taking place in the electorate.
The last few weeks have proven the accuracy of my posit. As an example,
most pollsters' samplings are NOT reaching (on a representative basis,
of course) the millions of Americans who in recent months have been
flooding voter registration offices in most states.

If I had the money, I'd pay to rebroadcast last week's debate a few
dozen times.











--
We today have a president of the United States who looks like he is the
son of Howdy Doody or Alfred E. Newman, who isn't smarter than either of
them, who is arrogant about his ignorance, who is reckless and
incompetent, and whose backers are turning the United States into a pariah.

What, me worry?