yep you are right about the mention of t storms all summer in LIS
and this forecast (like all) requires your own visual and tactile assesment

most of the t storms in LIS are potetnially dangerous events
some are accompanied by line sqaulls and pack real and dangerous winds
in october they are usually produced by a front moving thru.
either way....they are moving and sometimes moving dangerously fast.

i have and still do sail out knowing the forcast as well.
what is missing from this conversation is the use of ones senses

i have also sailed thru several while the coast guard channel was abuzz with
rescue efforts in progress..........several tragically unsuccessful efforts.
one near Rye and the other in Oyster bay a few years ago.

line squalls are reasonably predictable as to when they will hit. just
listen to NOAA. if the words pennsylaviania, NJ and 50mph get joined with
the words moving north at 30MPH......well you know what to expect..90 miles
away.30 mph per hour............you can do the rest.
they seem to move consistently up the coast.

T storms to some degree are also reasonably predictable.........watch the
sky. (duh!)
given the visible distance you can see in LIS (to the west and south) i say
it would be difficult to sail around one. and if you sail any distance off
your mooring, i'd say you ain't getting back between the time you see the
storm and it is over you.
most of these storms (in the summer) seem to always approach from the south,
which means they come from the general direction of manhattan.
"visiblity" is probably limited to what? ...maybe 10 miles. (the distance
before you realize what you are looking at) even if the storm is lugging
along at a measely 2 mph (usually much faster)......you now have 30 minutes
to get back to your mooring.

you should also be able to tell from NOAA the track of the storm. Words like
Rockland and Orange county and maybe even Hudson Valley will usually mean it
is to the north of you.--but not always. Words like Manhattan and Queens
county.....well your likely in it's track.

sail around them?
now how do you do that?

2 possiblities exist
one you don't sail far past your mooring
two, you must own one hell of a fast boat.

but there are always exceptions.....a few years ago there was a t storm
stalled along a north-south line thru the sound, along the southern edge. we
sailed all day along the northern edge of this storm without a worry and in
sunshine. remarkable and memorable day.

the decision to go or not is also dependant on who will be
aboard..........and it is not with anyone how does not know the potential
implications.

yes i sail with forecasts of T Storms but it is only after my own assesment
see i usually sail often with my daughter and friends aboard and feel
responsible for them, if not for myself.

as for T Storms being fun.....well to each his own
i used to think so.
have you ever seen what lightening can do?
not interested in going thru that again............much less be aboard when
it happens if it's avoidable.


GF.








wrote in message
...
On Fri, 1 Oct 2004 22:08:55 -0400, "Scott Vernon"
wrote:


"Bobsprit" wrote in message
...
I was going to sail tomorrow, but it looks like the whole east coast
will be raining with T-storms thrown in.


Incredible that Scotty Potti would post such a cowardly post.


You think a sailor should ignore weather forecasts and set sail into
thunderstorms?

Scotty


On the LIS during the summer, almost any rain forecast mentions possible
T-Storms. They do occur occasionally, but they are usually not at all
widespread, and you can easily sail around them.

BB