Don't think so Boob****. Go away with your Jane Fonda crap.

Investor's Business Daily

Despite the Iraq (news - web sites) prison scandal that has rocked the Bush
administration and damaged America's credibility, the latest Investor's
Business Daily/TIPP poll shows that the president would win if the election
were held today.
The nationwide poll of 981 adults, taken May 2-8 (after the prison scandal
broke) revealed that among 823 registered voters Bush leads Kerry 46% to 41%,
with independent Ralph Nader (news - web sites) getting 5%. In a two-way race,
Bush leads Kerry 47% to 44%.


In an IBD/TIPP poll taken April 16-22, Bush led by four points in a three-man
race.


In swing states, Bush widened his lead from 3 points in mid-April to 9 points
in early May. He now leads Kerry in the so-called battleground states 49% to
40%.




But the race is very close among independent voters. Bush gets 40% of their
votes; Kerry gets 39%.


Bush's presidential leadership ratings, as measured by the IBD/TIPP
Presidential Leadership Index, also rose - from 49.5 in April to 51.8 in May, a
gain of 4.5%.


"Despite a tough month, Bush seems to have come out ahead," said Raghavan
Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBD's
polling partner. "Bush's ratings have improved among 15 of the 21 demographic
groups we track."


Intensity of support among Bush voters is much stronger than support for Kerry,
the poll continues to show. While 68% of Bush's supporters say they support him
strongly, only 38% of Kerry's supporters say the same for him.


Kerry also lags Bush in tapping his party's constituencies. Bush gets 90% of
Republican votes while Kerry gets 77% of Democrats. In fact, one in eight
Democrats (12%) want to vote for Bush.


Only 11% of Democrats say they are "very satisfied" with the choice of
candidates in this year's election and 59% are "somewhat satisfied." This
contrasts with 42% of Republicans who are "very satisfied" and 37% who are
"somewhat satisfied."


Among independents, 16% are "very satisfied" and 43% are "somewhat satisfied"
with the available choice of candidates.


The poll has some good news for Kerry, however. Nearly three-fourths (71%) say
they made up their minds about whom they'll vote for back in February or even
earlier. One in five (18%) say they decided in April and March. While Bush
dominates among the early deciders (58% to 37%), Kerry is gaining among more
recent deciders (70% to 24%).


An IBD/TIPP index that gauges public opinion of U.S. standing in the world hit
its all-time low of 44.5 this month, reflecting the "stain" the prison scandal
may have made on the country's image. The index's previous low was 46.7 in
March 2003, just before the Iraq military action.


Bush has indicated he is aware of the situation, admitting that the last two
weeks have been tough on the Iraqi front, with the prison scandal following the
bloodiest month there for U.S. troops.


Still, Bush's ratings are improving. Why? Mayur cites four reasons, while
believing the net effect of all the positives vs. the negatives (especially the
prison scandal) is still positive.


First, he said, the latest job data have convinced many that the economic
recovery is for real. More admit that Bush's tax cuts have helped spur the
recovery.


Second, Bush's campaigning and heavy advertising in the Midwest and key swing
states seem to be bearing fruit. In late April, Kerry led the president 45% to
40%; now Bush leads by 15 points (51% to 36%) in the Midwest. "Each hand you
shake is worth 100 votes," Mayur observed.

Third, most Americans (80%) see Bush as a resolute leader. "And as things get
tougher in Iraq," Mayur said, "we expect more Americans to gravitate toward
him."

Fourth, support for U.S. military action in Iraq remains stable at 57%. Also,
52% believe the action is helping make the world safer. Nearly half (47%) think
the U.S. is winning the global war on terrorism while 36% believe it is losing.


Americans admit the prison scandal is not good for the country's image, Mayur
said, but they are not blaming Bush directly. If they were, he said, the
president's ratings would have dropped.

"Americans understand that a handful of people were responsible for the
(prison) incidents and perhaps have accepted Bush's apology," Mayur said.

The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.

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