You mean go more westerly, I'm sure. It certainly ain't
gonna turn around and go back from whence it came.

But, South Florida is out of the woods. Isabel cannot
keep going on a westerly course because there is a front
on it's way to the east. You can see the clouds in the
satellite photos. The high pressure area behind this
front has enough influence to turn Isabel on more of
a northerly track. It depends on how far south it
digs. The more it digs south the slower the upper
part of the frontal boundary will progress. It's
a matter of how well the models predict the alignment
of this front and the timing of its forward progress.

I'm counting on the fact that the models are underestimating
its ability to dig south. In doing so they are showing the
storm going ashore several hundred miles south of where
I think it's going to hit. We should know for sure by
Wednesday at any rate because the closer it gets
the less uncertainty there will be.

S.Simon - luvs hurricane season



"John Cairns" wrote in message ...
Don't get too optimistic. You're still in it's path, if it starts to go more
easterly you're screwed. OTOH, you may be able to pick up a bargain on a
slightly bent boat.. http://www.bentboats.com/
John Cairns
"Simple Simon" wrote in message
...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/fore...sion/MIATCDAT3

Now they are beginning to come more into line with what I predicted
three days ago.

Here's some of the text: "UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS ARE
NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT
4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING
CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD
MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH
COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL
FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST."

Make your preparations, Booby, because you're gonna get slammed!

S.Simon - the one and only - I'm so good I surprise myself.