On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


You might want to think again.

CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says
we are not out of the woods yet.

Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases
through June 15th. No forecasts after that.

Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been
minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better.

For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in
new cases from May 12h to May 19th.

New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania.
Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease.


Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent.
Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over
the May 12th to 19th period.

Here's an odd statistic:

North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing
neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent.

At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these
clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing
plant or something.
If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on
criminal.

I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a
working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of
some kind.