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[email protected] gfretwell@aol.com is offline
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Jul 2007
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Default covid-19 case counting errors

On Fri, 15 May 2020 07:31:48 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 5/14/2020 8:13 PM, wrote:
On Thu, 14 May 2020 07:55:26 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 5/14/20 7:45 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:


A screw-up in how covid-19 confirmed cases in Massachusetts
has been discovered and it may not be exclusive to to
Massachusetts. It is suspected as happening nation-wide
because of how the cases are being reported.

Here's an example of what has happened:

Nice anecdote and of course you are channeling Trump again, who wants
the CDC to drastically lower the death count. There are estimates that
the actual death toll to date may be 25% to 50% higher than reported.
You can be sure Trump will trumpet anything that he thinks will play in
his favor, since he doesn't give a flying **** about how many Americans
die.
Is Trump still touting that discredited malaria treatment?


Your haste to answer without actually reading or comprehending the OP
has you saying silly **** again. Inflating the actual covid infection
rate would make the death rate lower.
There is also not much question that they have inflated the actual
number of deaths, at least in New York. They CHANGED the cause of
death on 5000 people after the bodies were hauled away and without any
test to prove it. Perhaps the extra $65 Million they got from the feds
was an incentive tho. ($13,000 x 5000)



Another example of the troll turning a post that had nothing to do with
Trump or politics into a political rant.

I have a friend who works in our town's health department. There has
been a discrepancy in the town's recorded cases and what is reported
to the state and then to the CDC. Upon investigation it was
discovered that the number of confirmed cases were being counted
multiple times and the problem was state-wide and suspected to be
nation-wide as well.

Tell Harry the troll it had *nothing* to do with politics, Trump
and is not a "nice" anecdote. It's a problem that is being
corrected.

What an ass he is.


The data on this seems so corrupted that it is hard to believe much of
anything you read.
Being a computer guy I realize a big part of the problem is
incompatible databases that make cross footing the data virtually
impossible. In that situation, over counting is more likely than under
counting because there is no way to match duplicate records so they
get counted again.
We may never get accurate totals from this and as time goes by,
reconstructing the raw data only gets harder.
In 2-3 years perhaps the only valid thing will be comparing the
overall death rate to the trend line. That will zero out the people
who were going to die this year of something anyway. (one supposition)
OTOH we might be trading Covid deaths for car accidents and murders
that tend to be lower this year. That drop could still be offset by
other conditions that are not being treated because "elective" and
preventative procedures have been stopped.

Data is an interesting thing when you start crunching it. I only hope
someone can roll this year up into a valid searchable database. It
seems unlikely tho.