Thread: Testing fallacy
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[email protected] gfretwell@aol.com is offline
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First recorded activity by BoatBanter: Jul 2007
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Default Testing fallacy

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 09:27:34 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote:

On 4/18/20 9:23 AM, wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 08:18:39 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 4/18/2020 8:03 AM, John wrote:
On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 01:24:27 -0400,
wrote:

On Sat, 18 Apr 2020 04:19:48 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

wrote:
On Fri, 17 Apr 2020 19:08:07 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:



Doc Fauci addressed an important issue regarding "testing"
due to the growing concerns and even demands that "everybody"
gets tested for covid-19 before they go back to work.

Problem is that those who test negative
today could go out and become infected tomorrow.

In order to confirm that people going back to work are
free of infection .... they'd have to literally be tested
every day.

I have been saying that all along.

Another thing that he addressed is that many believe that once
infected and recovered, a person is "immune" to becoming
infected again.

He said that's a reasonable assumption based on the history
of other viral diseases, but it has not yet been 100% proven to
be the case with covid-19.

If our experience with the other Covids holds true, this will mutate
and we won't be totally immune but the antibodies we have will make
fighting it off easier.




It may become another flu.

Or just another nagging seasonal cold.

Except for us old guys.

I know many of you enjoy taking cruises but I've scratched any
thought of that off my list permanently.

When Mrs.E. and I celebrated our 50th wedding anniversary in
February we gave some thought to taking a cruise in a nice,
warm climate. I checked into the availability of two or
three in January and we gave it some serious consideration
since we've never done a cruise before (other than complements
of Uncle Sam in the Navy) This was just before the seriousness
of the covid-19 thing was known.

Reflecting back now ... We are very thankful we opted *not*
to do it. We ended up just having a celebration party
organized by our kids and attended by about 75 people.
That was on Feb 15th. Fortunately, it appears nobody
in attendance had already been infected.

If we had waited a few more weeks to schedule the party,
I doubt it would have happened.


My IBM and golf buddy in Bradenton was on one of those nightmare
cruises around South America and he ended up being trapped on the ship
for 3 weeks until they finally went to Miami. It actually worked out
OK because that was where his car was anyway. They were supposed to
fly back from Chile but Chile would not let them land. The cruise line
shuttled them to the airport for flights home and that was where his
car was. He did get an unscheduled trip through the Panama Canal and
he had a nice suite so being on the ship an extra 3 weeks wasn't
horrible.


Ahh...another advantage of being on a cruise ship...a free extension
because of a breakout of a virus on board. Add that to food poisoning,
falling overboard, hitting reefs and sinking, crashing into other ships,
and it is easy to see why the cruise life is so popular.


Look at the bright side, at least they don't plunge down from 33,000
feet in a fiery crash that kills everyone on board.