On Fri, 3 Apr 2020 16:16:39 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:

On 4/3/20 10:56 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:

Politics aside, I think maybe the collective actions taken
by everyone, including government officials, have been
an over-reaction driven by public fear and panic.

The recommendations ofÂ* scientists who's lifetime
work has been studying epidemics and pandemics
have driven the reactions.Â* Their input is
very important and valuable but it has to considered
from the standpoint that it comes from a narrow
field of view with limited regard to other factors
like how their academic recommendations affect
the overall economic status of the country.

As more "granular data" is crunched, analyzed and
announced to the public and to government officials,
the situation seems only to worsen.

Sweden took a different approach.

They issued recommendations that those at high risk
take precautions to isolate themselves.
Logical, not emotional or panic driven.

They recommended "social distance" protocols for
the rest and hand washing, etc.

They recommended avoiding groups of 50 or more.

But, they did *not* shut down schools, businesses,
restaurants, etc. for the rest of the public.
They emphasized the responsibility the public has
to avoid becoming infected as best they can while
recognizing that over 80 percent of those who *do*
become infected will recover, most with no need
for hospitalization.

As of this morning Sweden, with a population of
just over 10 million, has 5568 confirmed cases
with 308 deaths.

Wondering if this approach would have been more
appropriate.

Interestingly, California seems to have successfully
"flattened the curve" yet testing in California
lags well behind other "hot spot" sections of the
country.



I suppose everyone is entitled to whatever conjectures float their boat.
I have no idea how many in this country will die, and neither does
anyone else. But...if it is less than some of the scientists predict,
you can be sure Trump will take credit for less deaths than predicted.

If you believe the most extreme guesses, there will be fewer deaths
than they predict. The real way to tell is to start with 2.8 million
that will die in any given year and see where it goes from there.