On 3/31/2020 8:39 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 31 Mar 2020 08:11:25 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 3/31/2020 1:00 AM, wrote:
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 19:50:24 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:
I understand that Doc Birx says current models point to
up to 2.2 million deaths if people do *nothing* in terms
of following CDC recommendations and 100K to 200K deaths
if people do things perfectly.
Is she talking world-wide or just in the USA?
===
USA
If that seems far fetched, consider that the so called Spanish flu is
estimated to have killed over 500,000 in the USA at a time when the
total population was much lower than now.
A month ago it was being reported that although serious, the covid-19
virus should be put in perspective with the yearly seasonal flu
that typically kills 10,000 to 12,000 yearly.
Now we are being told to expect up to 16 times that number dying
due to covid-19.
I am not sure I buy the "models" the scientists use to make these
predictions. Seems like they apply current "data" to an algorithm
that is missing some components and may or may not be realistic.
A simple analogy:
Picture sitting in your car on a highway. From a stand-still
put the pedal to the metal and hold it there, never releasing it.
The car will soon reach a maximum rate of acceleration but as
speed increases the rate of acceleration declines until at
some point other factors prevent any further speed increase.
Using this analogy, sometimes I think the covid-19 experts who are using
data to create their models are like taking the peak acceleration rate
of the car and assuming that rate becomes a constant.
Your flu numbers seem pretty low:
"This year's flu season is shaping up to be possibly less severe than the
2017-2018 season, when 61,000 deaths were linked to the virus. However, it could
equal or surpass the 2018-2019 season's 34,200 flu-related deaths."
https://www.health.com/condition/col...flu-every-year
I'm thinking the reverse, that the estimate of 100K-200K is the 'good behavior'
curve, and the 1M-2M number is the 'bad behavior' curve. The good folks seemed
kind of confusing with their numbers yesterday, but that's what I got out of it.
In other words, the 100K-200K number is the low end of the current curve, but
does not include any possible breakthroughs in treatment (cure?).
Yes, the 100K - 200k covid-19 deaths *is* Dr. Birx's most recent "best
case" estimate ... if everyone cooperates "perfectly".
Her worst case was up to 2.3 million deaths if people do nothing.
I don't understand how their "models" can identify that number.
Why stop at 2.3 million? Why not everyone? If the model is
accurate, there has to be another factor that limits it to 2.3 million.
My point was that earlier in this pandemic the estimates were much lower
and "experts" were pointing out that more people would likely die from
the seasonal flu than from covid-19. That has obviously changed.
It could be that it is an attempt to wake people up and emphasize the
need to follow the CDC recommendations to limit travel, practice
social distance, wash your hands, etc.
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com