On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:01:52 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/29/2020 12:49 PM, wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 12:23:04 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 3/29/2020 11:29 AM, John wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:23:13 -0400, Justan Ohlphart wrote:

On 3/29/2020 9:09 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 8:52 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/29/20 8:36 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


Here's a great website for both general world
wide statistics and those related specifically
to the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.worldometers.info/

That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the
spectacular
health systems, according to our resident liberal.


I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage
of deaths per population though.

It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good"
but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country.

I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system
in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population
but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak"
for another 3 to 4 weeks.* How they get that estimate is
beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country
that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to
see the exponential rates of increase.

Last night, using the historical data from the website you
provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet
of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts
for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending
with March 28th.* I then generated a chart for the fun of
it.* It reflected the same exponential rate that the
national CDC graphs show.* It was discouraging, so I
deleted it.

Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine)
I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this.




Until the testing is near-universal, the value of knowing the "number
of confirmed cases" is virtually nothing, especially in comparison to
other countries or previous confirmed cases of earlier flu-like diseases.

How many tests per state would one need to know the extent of the
spread of the virus? Would you want to consider the number of tests
per 1000 persons in a state? What are your parameters?

This morning I saw a chart that stated there were 121,000+ known cases
in the USA, based upon an unstated number of tests. How many "unknown"
cases? Who knows? No one knows. How available are the tests in every
community? Who knows? No one knows. Et cetera.


All true but again, what does it matter?* The testing produces a
number used to determine percentages of deaths.* That's all it does.

Thus far, testing has done absolutely *nothing* to control the spread
of the virus.

I think doc Fauci has it right.* He says we should assume that
*everyone* is infected and to act accordingly.





I hate to disagree with you but how else can you measure the success or
failure of measures to isolate, control, treat, or prevent the virus.


By looking at the actual cases? Sounds reasonable to me. The only way to measure
the success of treatment is to look at confirmed cases.

I agree. I may be wrong or don't understand the logic but mass testing
for the sake of mass testing accomplishes nothing.

Last report I heard was that the USA is testing over 100,000 people a
day now.

What benefit has it served other than to confirm more cases thus
lowering the death rate percentage?

The spread and exponential rate of infections continue and there's
indication it is slowing down or "flattening the curve" at all.

===


One of the reasons for the exponential growth is the long incubation
period, about 15 days, where people are not yet showing symptoms but
are communicating the disease. Mandatory testing, especially at
travel checkpoints, could help to slow the spread. It could also be
helpful for healthcare workers and first responders. As a group they
are very vunerable, and the more quickly they are detected and
isolated, the less chance of them passing it along.


I understand. However, we are in a serious and major exponential
spread of this virus with many areas of the country yet to begin.

I think it would be more prudent at this point in time to encourage
or even enforce if necessary the recommendations of the CDC and other
professionals. As Doc Fauci recommends: Assume you are infected
and limit your travel and exposure to others accordingly.

We can crunch numbers later.

===

Even if all travel outside the home is banned and quarantines are
strictly enforced, there is still the issue with first responders,
health care professionals and delivery people. I think the new test
that Abbott labs has developed could help a lot with that. Supposedly
it can give results in less than 15 minutes, short enough that
critical workers could be tested every day at the beginning of their
shift.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com