On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 12:46:38 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote:

On Monday, March 23, 2020 at 2:57:29 PM UTC-4, John H wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 18:41:02 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote:

Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 12:37:06 -0400, wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:43:17 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:20:51 -0400, wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:46:55 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:33:00 -0400, wrote:

Here's a good article from WIRED magazine on how to develop a model
for predicting the number of new cases over time. Of course there's
some math involved but it's fairly easy to follow:

https://www.wired.com/story/how-fast-does-a-virus-spread/?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=wired&utm_mailing=WIR_Tra nsportation_TopClickers_032320&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5cc9e2952ddf9c1a7adfa79b &cndid=54884204&esrc=&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_ TRANSPORTATION_ZZ&utm_term=WIR_TopClickers_EXCLUDE _Transportation

You'll also get a working script for doing your own calculations and
graphs.

Assuming the growth resembles a quadratic (exponential) equation, I've put a
function up earlier that should give a rough approximation.
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Yes, I saw that but I thought you might be interested in their
slightly different approach. You also get a working script which you
can modify with different assumptions, and automatically produce
graphs.

I'll have to admit I didn't get as deep as differential calculus!
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I studied calculus in engineering school but never considered myself
to be highly proficient at it. A few years later I was on the
technical staff of a high energy physics lab at Cornell University. On
of my colleagues was a PhD EE who could solve differential equations
in his head. That always amazed me.

I took three semesters of calculus, and one of advanced calculus. I never
understood anything, really, until the next semester. The stuff in advanced
calculus is still over my head.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!


Should have asked Tom Francis to explain the math. His Doctorate was in
math.

Quadratic equations are not that difficult. That's algebra stuff. Well, maybe
advanced algebra, but high school stuff nevertheless.
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

I hated algebra in high school. I just didn't "get it". It wasn't until later that I figured out I just had a bad teacher. She taught from the book in a dry, robotic way. Once I saw the practical applications of it, it all made sense. If she would only have shown the class that, it would have helped a lot.

I loved teaching algebra in the eighth grade. For one thing, they were on the
upper end of the scale academically, and they were just great kids.
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Freedom Isn't Free!