BoatBanter.com - View Single Post - Using Math to Model the Corona Virus Spread

Mr. Luddite[_4_]

On 3/23/2020 12:37 PM, wrote:
On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:43:17 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:20:51 -0400, wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:46:55 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:33:00 -0400, wrote:

Here's a good article from WIRED magazine on how to develop a model
for predicting the number of new cases over time. Of course there's
some math involved but it's fairly easy to follow:

https://www.wired.com/story/how-fast-does-a-virus-spread/?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=wired&utm_mailing=WIR_Tra nsportation_TopClickers_032320&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5cc9e2952ddf9c1a7adfa79b &cndid=54884204&esrc=&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_ TRANSPORTATION_ZZ&utm_term=WIR_TopClickers_EXCLUDE _Transportation

You'll also get a working script for doing your own calculations and
graphs.

Assuming the growth resembles a quadratic (exponential) equation, I've put a
function up earlier that should give a rough approximation.
--

===

Yes, I saw that but I thought you might be interested in their
slightly different approach. You also get a working script which you
can modify with different assumptions, and automatically produce
graphs.

I'll have to admit I didn't get as deep as differential calculus!
--

===

I studied calculus in engineering school but never considered myself
to be highly proficient at it. A few years later I was on the
technical staff of a high energy physics lab at Cornell University. On
of my colleagues was a PhD EE who could solve differential equations
in his head. That always amazed me.

Certain aspects of electrical and electronics engineering involve the
use of differential calculus equations. So does the vacuum equipment
industry I was involved in.

I can do the calcs (carefully) when I understand what I am solving
for .... like pumping calculations in a system that passes through
viscous flow to non-viscous molecular flow. But to understand
the math involved just for the sake of understanding it
is my weakness.

--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com