On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:43:17 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 11:20:51 -0400, wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:46:55 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Mon, 23 Mar 2020 10:33:00 -0400, wrote:

Here's a good article from WIRED magazine on how to develop a model
for predicting the number of new cases over time. Of course there's
some math involved but it's fairly easy to follow:

https://www.wired.com/story/how-fast-does-a-virus-spread/?utm_source=nl&utm_brand=wired&utm_mailing=WIR_Tra nsportation_TopClickers_032320&utm_campaign=aud-dev&utm_medium=email&bxid=5cc9e2952ddf9c1a7adfa79b &cndid=54884204&esrc=&source=EDT_WIR_NEWSLETTER_0_ TRANSPORTATION_ZZ&utm_term=WIR_TopClickers_EXCLUDE _Transportation

You'll also get a working script for doing your own calculations and
graphs.

Assuming the growth resembles a quadratic (exponential) equation, I've put a
function up earlier that should give a rough approximation.
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Yes, I saw that but I thought you might be interested in their
slightly different approach. You also get a working script which you
can modify with different assumptions, and automatically produce
graphs.

I'll have to admit I didn't get as deep as differential calculus!
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I studied calculus in engineering school but never considered myself
to be highly proficient at it. A few years later I was on the
technical staff of a high energy physics lab at Cornell University. On
of my colleagues was a PhD EE who could solve differential equations
in his head. That always amazed me.

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