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Adorable Deplorable

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 23:48:38 -0400, wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:37:42 -0400, Adorable Deplorable
wrote:

On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 10:05:43 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

On 3/22/2020 10:00 AM, Adorable Deplorable wrote:
On Sun, 22 Mar 2020 09:01:50 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:

This morning I was reading some of the results from a study
done by Columbia University on the corvid-19 infection rates.

Highlights include:

1. The study concludes that there is actually 11 times the number
of people currently known to be carrying the virus. Based on
current known cases, that would indicate almost 300,000 people
in the USA, most who are carrying the virus but don't know it.

2. Based on the level of controls by fed and state governments
and the cooperation of the population to adhere to their
controls and recommendations, the study evaluated the
results and generated graphs of "no controls", "some controls"
and "severe controls". "Severe controls" becomes obvious as
the only means of beating this thing.

3. In any event, it has not peaked yet and won't until May or June
in the best case and mid summer in a more realistic case.

Not a particularly encouraging study. It also suggests that
if not brought under control medical facilities, especially
in the hardest hit areas of the country, may find themselves
in the position of choosing who gets treated and who dies.

Annoying to me is my awareness of some people, young and old,
who seem to have determined that the controls and recommendations
don't apply to them, thus putting themselves and people they
come in contact with at risk.

Given the rate of climb in the past few days, I've redone my curve. It now
results in about 283,000 confirmed US cases by around 22 April, unless something
really drastic happens.

Yes, it's getting scary quickly!
--

Freedom Isn't Free!

Run your curve again adding the estimated 300,000 people the Columbia
University study believes exists *right now*.

That's very scary. Mycurve is based on a start of 26663 confirmed cases. Adding
300,000 to that would give an estimate of around 1,758,000 by 22 April. Let's
hope Columbia U is wrong.

On the other hand, if there are an additional 300K cases out there, that would
indicate the symptoms aren't bad enough for the folks to get 'confirmed'.

I'm tempted to test fate and get out there and catch it. I think catching it
now, before the hospitals are totally inundated, would be a good idea.

As Ed suggested on FB, it might be best if all of the health care
workers caught it and got it over with, now that they are not being
slammed with a million cases.

How come I didn't see Ed's post? Did he block me because my dog's prettier than
he is?
--

Freedom Isn't Free!