On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 15:09:52 -0400, wrote:

On Thu, 21 Sep 2017 07:40:46 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:

On 9/21/2017 2:14 AM, wrote:
On Wed, 20 Sep 2017 13:58:38 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote:


Good day to read a book or argue with Harry on rec.boats. :-)

Raw and cold out. 63 degrees. (Fahrenheit for Don)

Getting bands of heavy rain and wind from the remnants of Jose.
Some of the gusts are pretty strong but certainly not the likes
of what you guys in Florida experienced.

Puerto Rico is getting slammed by Maria. It's interesting that for an
island in the tropics, they haven't been directly hit by a Cat 4 or 5
hurricane in 100 years. I remember when we bought the house in Florida.
People told me that the Jupiter area had not had a direct hurricane hit
also in 100 years. So, we bought the house and had three of them in 14
months.

Weather guessers up here have all eyes on Maria. The long range
spaghetti models, including the Euro and GFS models have it staying
offshore on the east coast but possibly wacking right into Cape Cod and
southeast MA. According to the forecasters, Maria's ultimate track
depends a lot on what Jose ends up doing and how long it meanders around
off the MA coastline.


Actually NGX2 (european model) has it going into Richmond right now.
http://www.nbc-2.com/category/170825...ricane-tracker
(go down to the command line at the bottom of the map and click
spaghetti)
I agree that until they figure out what Jose is doing, this is blindly
throwing darts. You have 2 competing models feeding off each other and
Jose has been spinning in circles for over a week.



That's a confusing map. Whatever model "TABS" is seems to originate out
of nowhere and shows something hitting South Carolina somewhere near
Charleston. The latest NOAA forecast indicates a model consensus that
Maria will stay well off shore and make a turn to the east, missing the
USA completely. Of course, that could change again tomorrow. I liken
forecasting the direction a hurricane will take to putting a small blob
of mercury on a glass plate. Doesn't take much external influence on
that plate to make the mercury move in different directions.


I started losing faith in these plots with Irma. They had it 100%
going up the east coast 3 days out and in 48 hours it was right over
us. Our local guy was better than NOAA on the last day, predicting the
eye wall hitting within minutes of being right.


===

The problem with forecasting the Irma track was getting the timing
right for the turn northward. Even a small error created a
substantial lateral shift because of the geometry.

---
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
http://www.avg.com