Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

Unfortunately, I can’t be more specific. I don’t know if disaster will
come by flood or drought, hurricane or blizzard, fire or ice. Nor do I
have any idea how much the planet will warm this year or what that
means for your local forecast. Long-term climate models cannot explain
short-term weather.

But there’s bound to be some weird weather somewhere, and we will
react like the sailors in the Book of Jonah. When a storm hit their
ship, they didn’t ascribe it to a seasonal weather pattern. They
quickly identified the cause (Jonah’s sinfulness) and agreed to an
appropriate policy response (throw Jonah overboard).

Today’s interpreters of the weather are what social scientists call
availability entrepreneurs: the activists, journalists and
publicity-savvy scientists who selectively monitor the globe looking
for newsworthy evidence of a new form of sinfulness, burning fossil
fuels.

A year ago, British meteorologists made headlines predicting that the
buildup of greenhouse gases would help make 2007 the hottest year on
record. At year’s end, even though the British scientists reported the
global temperature average was not a new record — it was actually
lower than any year since 2001 — the BBC confidently proclaimed, “2007
Data Confirms Warming Trend.”

When the Arctic sea ice last year hit the lowest level ever recorded
by satellites, it was big news and heralded as a sign that the whole
planet was warming. When the Antarctic sea ice last year reached the
highest level ever recorded by satellites, it was pretty much ignored.
A large part of Antarctica has been cooling recently, but most
coverage of that continent has focused on one small part that has
warmed.

When Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans in 2005, it was supposed to
be a harbinger of the stormier world predicted by some climate
modelers. When the next two hurricane seasons were fairly calm — by
some measures, last season in the Northern Hemisphere was the calmest
in three decades — the availability entrepreneurs changed the subject.
Droughts in California and Australia became the new harbingers of
climate change (never mind that a warmer planet is projected to have
more, not less, precipitation over all).

The most charitable excuse for this bias in weather divination is that
the entrepreneurs are trying to offset another bias. The planet has
indeed gotten warmer, and it is projected to keep warming because of
greenhouse emissions, but this process is too slow to make much impact
on the public.

When judging risks, we often go wrong by using what’s called the
availability heuristic: we gauge a danger according to how many
examples of it are readily available in our minds. Thus we
overestimate the odds of dying in a terrorist attack or a plane crash
because we’ve seen such dramatic deaths so often on television; we
underestimate the risks of dying from a stroke because we don’t have
so many vivid images readily available.

Slow warming doesn’t make for memorable images on television or in
people’s minds, so activists, journalists and scientists have looked
to hurricanes, wild fires and starving polar bears instead. They have
used these images to start an “availability cascade,” a term coined by
Timur Kuran, a professor of economics and law at the University of
Southern California, and Cass R. Sunstein, a law professor at the
University of Chicago.

The availability cascade is a self-perpetuating process: the more
attention a danger gets, the more worried people become, leading to
more news coverage and more fear. Once the images of Sept. 11 made
terrorism seem a major threat, the press and the police lavished
attention on potential new attacks and supposed plots. After Three
Mile Island and “The China Syndrome,” minor malfunctions at nuclear
power plants suddenly became newsworthy.

“Many people concerned about climate change,” Dr. Sunstein says, “want
to create an availability cascade by fixing an incident in people’s
minds. Hurricane Katrina is just an early example; there will be
others. I don’t doubt that climate change is real and that it presents
a serious threat, but there’s a danger that any ‘consensus’ on
particular events or specific findings is, in part, a cascade.”

Once a cascade is under way, it becomes tough to sort out risks
because experts become reluctant to dispute the popular wisdom, and
are ignored if they do. Now that the melting Arctic has become the
symbol of global warming, there’s not much interest in hearing other
explanations of why the ice is melting — or why the globe’s other pole
isn’t melting, too.

Global warming has an impact on both polar regions, but they’re also
strongly influenced by regional weather patterns and ocean currents.
Two studies by NASA and university scientists last year concluded that
much of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice was related to a cyclical
change in ocean currents and winds, but those studies got relatively
little attention — and were certainly no match for the images of
struggling polar bears so popular with availability entrepreneurs.

Roger A. Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the
University of Colorado, recently noted the very different reception
received last year by two conflicting papers on the link between
hurricanes and global warming. He counted 79 news articles about a
paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, and only
3 news articles about one in a far more prestigious journal, Nature.

Guess which paper jibed with the theory — and image of Katrina —
presented by Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth”?

It was, of course, the paper in the more obscure journal, which
suggested that global warming is creating more hurricanes. The paper
in Nature concluded that global warming has a minimal effect on
hurricanes. It was published in December — by coincidence, the same
week that Mr. Gore received his Nobel Peace Prize.

In his acceptance speech, Mr. Gore didn’t dwell on the complexities of
the hurricane debate. Nor, in his roundup of the 2007 weather, did he
mention how calm the hurricane season had been. Instead, he alluded
somewhat mysteriously to “stronger storms in the Atlantic and
Pacific,” and focused on other kinds of disasters, like “massive
droughts” and “massive flooding.”

“In the last few months,” Mr. Gore said, “it has been harder and
harder to misinterpret the signs that our world is spinning out of
kilter.” But he was being too modest. Thanks to availability
entrepreneurs like him, misinterpreting the weather is getting easier
and easier.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

Unfortunately, I can’t be more specific. I don’t know if disaster will
come by flood or drought, hurricane or blizzard, fire or ice. Nor do I
have any idea how much the planet will warm this year or what that
means for your local forecast. Long-term climate models cannot explain
short-term weather.

But there’s bound to be some weird weather somewhere, and we will
react like the sailors in the Book of Jonah. When a storm hit their
ship, they didn’t ascribe it to a seasonal weather pattern. They
quickly identified the cause (Jonah’s sinfulness) and agreed to an
appropriate policy response (throw Jonah overboard).

Today’s interpreters of the weather are what social scientists call
availability entrepreneurs: the activists, journalists and
publicity-savvy scientists who selectively monitor the globe looking
for newsworthy evidence of a new form of sinfulness, burning fossil
fuels.

A year ago, British meteorologists made headlines predicting that the
buildup of greenhouse gases would help make 2007 the hottest year on
record. At year’s end, even though the British scientists reported the
global temperature average was not a new record — it was actually
lower than any year since 2001 — the BBC confidently proclaimed, “2007
Data Confirms Warming Trend.”

When the Arctic sea ice last year hit the lowest level ever recorded
by satellites, it was big news and heralded as a sign that the whole
planet was warming. When the Antarctic sea ice last year reached the
highest level ever recorded by satellites, it was pretty much ignored.
A large part of Antarctica has been cooling recently, but most
coverage of that continent has focused on one small part that has
warmed.

When Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans in 2005, it was supposed to
be a harbinger of the stormier world predicted by some climate
modelers. When the next two hurricane seasons were fairly calm — by
some measures, last season in the Northern Hemisphere was the calmest
in three decades — the availability entrepreneurs changed the subject.
Droughts in California and Australia became the new harbingers of
climate change (never mind that a warmer planet is projected to have
more, not less, precipitation over all).

The most charitable excuse for this bias in weather divination is that
the entrepreneurs are trying to offset another bias. The planet has
indeed gotten warmer, and it is projected to keep warming because of
greenhouse emissions, but this process is too slow to make much impact
on the public.

When judging risks, we often go wrong by using what’s called the
availability heuristic: we gauge a danger according to how many
examples of it are readily available in our minds. Thus we
overestimate the odds of dying in a terrorist attack or a plane crash
because we’ve seen such dramatic deaths so often on television; we
underestimate the risks of dying from a stroke because we don’t have
so many vivid images readily available.

Slow warming doesn’t make for memorable images on television or in
people’s minds, so activists, journalists and scientists have looked
to hurricanes, wild fires and starving polar bears instead. They have
used these images to start an “availability cascade,” a term coined by
Timur Kuran, a professor of economics and law at the University of
Southern California, and Cass R. Sunstein, a law professor at the
University of Chicago.

The availability cascade is a self-perpetuating process: the more
attention a danger gets, the more worried people become, leading to
more news coverage and more fear. Once the images of Sept. 11 made
terrorism seem a major threat, the press and the police lavished
attention on potential new attacks and supposed plots. After Three
Mile Island and “The China Syndrome,” minor malfunctions at nuclear
power plants suddenly became newsworthy.

“Many people concerned about climate change,” Dr. Sunstein says, “want
to create an availability cascade by fixing an incident in people’s
minds. Hurricane Katrina is just an early example; there will be
others. I don’t doubt that climate change is real and that it presents
a serious threat, but there’s a danger that any ‘consensus’ on
particular events or specific findings is, in part, a cascade.”

Once a cascade is under way, it becomes tough to sort out risks
because experts become reluctant to dispute the popular wisdom, and
are ignored if they do. Now that the melting Arctic has become the
symbol of global warming, there’s not much interest in hearing other
explanations of why the ice is melting — or why the globe’s other pole
isn’t melting, too.

Global warming has an impact on both polar regions, but they’re also
strongly influenced by regional weather patterns and ocean currents.
Two studies by NASA and university scientists last year concluded that
much of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice was related to a cyclical
change in ocean currents and winds, but those studies got relatively
little attention — and were certainly no match for the images of
struggling polar bears so popular with availability entrepreneurs.

Roger A. Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the
University of Colorado, recently noted the very different reception
received last year by two conflicting papers on the link between
hurricanes and global warming. He counted 79 news articles about a
paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, and only
3 news articles about one in a far more prestigious journal, Nature.

Guess which paper jibed with the theory — and image of Katrina —
presented by Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth”?

It was, of course, the paper in the more obscure journal, which
suggested that global warming is creating more hurricanes. The paper
in Nature concluded that global warming has a minimal effect on
hurricanes. It was published in December — by coincidence, the same
week that Mr. Gore received his Nobel Peace Prize.

In his acceptance speech, Mr. Gore didn’t dwell on the complexities of
the hurricane debate. Nor, in his roundup of the 2007 weather, did he
mention how calm the hurricane season had been. Instead, he alluded
somewhat mysteriously to “stronger storms in the Atlantic and
Pacific,” and focused on other kinds of disasters, like “massive
droughts” and “massive flooding.”

“In the last few months,” Mr. Gore said, “it has been harder and
harder to misinterpret the signs that our world is spinning out of
kilter.” But he was being too modest. Thanks to availability
entrepreneurs like him, misinterpreting the weather is getting easier
and easier.


I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a killer meteor.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:34:32 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a killer meteor.

Nope- black hole.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:34:32 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a killer meteor.

Nope- black hole.

I am leaning more to the white-hole.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Reginald P. Smithers III wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008


[ Snip ]



I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a killer meteor.


Didn't that meteor about 65,000,000 million years ago almost whip out
life on the Earth's surface? I am more afraid of the meteor that is
coming in 2028 than I am from burning a gallon of gasoline.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.



You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.
You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.



You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

You do know that much of comedy and humor is based upon truth. Why do we
laugh at the videos people send in to those video shows?

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

BAR wrote:
HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.
You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.



You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

You do know that much of comedy and humor is based upon truth. Why do we
laugh at the videos people send in to those video shows?


I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while to
see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:59:19 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

Yes I do.

My point still stands.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:47:19 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:34:32 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a killer meteor.

Nope- black hole.

I am leaning more to the white-hole.

Black hole, White Hole, Worm Hole a dollar.

All for extinction, stand up and holler!!

WHOO HOO!!

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:59:19 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.
You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

Yes I do.

My point still stands.



Clearly, where it has always stood, right on top of your head!

(Sorry...you left the door open there...hehehe._

--
George W. Bush - the 43rd Best President Ever!

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 07:46:03 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:59:19 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.
You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

Yes I do.

My point still stands.

Clearly, where it has always stood, right on top of your head!

(Sorry...you left the door open there...hehehe._

Don't worry - there is plenty of time for revenge....

MMMUUAAWWWWAAAHHHHHAAAAAA!!!!

Deserting the Global Taxing Ship...
 

On Jan 2, 7:51 am, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 07:46:03 -0500, HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:59:19 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I'd like to wish you a happy New Year, but I'm afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You're in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change -- and that these images are a mere preview of
what's in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.
You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

Yes I do.

My point still stands.

Clearly, where it has always stood, right on top of your head!

(Sorry...you left the door open there...hehehe._

Don't worry - there is plenty of time for revenge....

MMMUUAAWWWWAAAHHHHHAAAAAA!!!!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Ah Tom.. .you should not pick on the short bus guys...

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"HK" wrote in message
...
BAR wrote:
HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.
You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.



You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

You do know that much of comedy and humor is based upon truth. Why do we
laugh at the videos people send in to those video shows?


I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while to
see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

~~ Snerk ~~

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:45:21 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:47:19 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:34:32 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a killer meteor.

Nope- black hole.

I am leaning more to the white-hole.

Black hole, White Hole, Worm Hole a dollar.

All for extinction, stand up and holler!!

WHOO HOO!!

Regardless of what Loogy will say, that was pretty good!
--

JohnH

"Opa of 6"

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 12:51:21 GMT, Short Wave Sportfishing
wrote:

On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 07:46:03 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:59:19 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.
You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

Yes I do.

My point still stands.

Clearly, where it has always stood, right on top of your head!

(Sorry...you left the door open there...hehehe._

Don't worry - there is plenty of time for revenge....

MMMUUAAWWWWAAAHHHHHAAAAAA!!!!

Just ask him about his lobsta' boat.
--

JohnH

"Opa of 6"

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in message
...
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I’d like to wish you a happy New Year, but I’m afraid I have a
different sort of prediction. You’re in for very bad weather. In 2008,
your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change — and that these images are a mere preview of
what’s in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

Unfortunately, I can’t be more specific. I don’t know if disaster will
come by flood or drought, hurricane or blizzard, fire or ice. Nor do I
have any idea how much the planet will warm this year or what that
means for your local forecast. Long-term climate models cannot explain
short-term weather. But there’s bound to be some weird weather somewhere,
and we will
react like the sailors in the Book of Jonah. When a storm hit their
ship, they didn’t ascribe it to a seasonal weather pattern. They
quickly identified the cause (Jonah’s sinfulness) and agreed to an
appropriate policy response (throw Jonah overboard).

Today’s interpreters of the weather are what social scientists call
availability entrepreneurs: the activists, journalists and
publicity-savvy scientists who selectively monitor the globe looking
for newsworthy evidence of a new form of sinfulness, burning fossil
fuels. A year ago, British meteorologists made headlines predicting that
the
buildup of greenhouse gases would help make 2007 the hottest year on
record. At year’s end, even though the British scientists reported the
global temperature average was not a new record — it was actually
lower than any year since 2001 — the BBC confidently proclaimed, “2007
Data Confirms Warming Trend.”

When the Arctic sea ice last year hit the lowest level ever recorded
by satellites, it was big news and heralded as a sign that the whole
planet was warming. When the Antarctic sea ice last year reached the
highest level ever recorded by satellites, it was pretty much ignored.
A large part of Antarctica has been cooling recently, but most
coverage of that continent has focused on one small part that has
warmed.

When Hurricane Katrina flooded New Orleans in 2005, it was supposed to
be a harbinger of the stormier world predicted by some climate
modelers. When the next two hurricane seasons were fairly calm — by
some measures, last season in the Northern Hemisphere was the calmest
in three decades — the availability entrepreneurs changed the subject.
Droughts in California and Australia became the new harbingers of
climate change (never mind that a warmer planet is projected to have
more, not less, precipitation over all). The most charitable excuse for
this bias in weather divination is that
the entrepreneurs are trying to offset another bias. The planet has
indeed gotten warmer, and it is projected to keep warming because of
greenhouse emissions, but this process is too slow to make much impact
on the public. When judging risks, we often go wrong by using what’s
called the
availability heuristic: we gauge a danger according to how many
examples of it are readily available in our minds. Thus we
overestimate the odds of dying in a terrorist attack or a plane crash
because we’ve seen such dramatic deaths so often on television; we
underestimate the risks of dying from a stroke because we don’t have
so many vivid images readily available.

Slow warming doesn’t make for memorable images on television or in
people’s minds, so activists, journalists and scientists have looked
to hurricanes, wild fires and starving polar bears instead. They have
used these images to start an “availability cascade,” a term coined by
Timur Kuran, a professor of economics and law at the University of
Southern California, and Cass R. Sunstein, a law professor at the
University of Chicago. The availability cascade is a self-perpetuating
process: the more
attention a danger gets, the more worried people become, leading to
more news coverage and more fear. Once the images of Sept. 11 made
terrorism seem a major threat, the press and the police lavished
attention on potential new attacks and supposed plots. After Three
Mile Island and “The China Syndrome,” minor malfunctions at nuclear
power plants suddenly became newsworthy. “Many people concerned about
climate change,” Dr. Sunstein says, “want
to create an availability cascade by fixing an incident in people’s
minds. Hurricane Katrina is just an early example; there will be
others. I don’t doubt that climate change is real and that it presents
a serious threat, but there’s a danger that any ‘consensus’ on
particular events or specific findings is, in part, a cascade.” Once a
cascade is under way, it becomes tough to sort out risks
because experts become reluctant to dispute the popular wisdom, and
are ignored if they do. Now that the melting Arctic has become the
symbol of global warming, there’s not much interest in hearing other
explanations of why the ice is melting — or why the globe’s other pole
isn’t melting, too.

Global warming has an impact on both polar regions, but they’re also
strongly influenced by regional weather patterns and ocean currents.
Two studies by NASA and university scientists last year concluded that
much of the recent melting of Arctic sea ice was related to a cyclical
change in ocean currents and winds, but those studies got relatively
little attention — and were certainly no match for the images of
struggling polar bears so popular with availability entrepreneurs.

Roger A. Pielke Jr., a professor of environmental studies at the
University of Colorado, recently noted the very different reception
received last year by two conflicting papers on the link between
hurricanes and global warming. He counted 79 news articles about a
paper in the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society, and only
3 news articles about one in a far more prestigious journal, Nature.
Guess which paper jibed with the theory — and image of Katrina —
presented by Al Gore’s “Inconvenient Truth”?

It was, of course, the paper in the more obscure journal, which
suggested that global warming is creating more hurricanes. The paper
in Nature concluded that global warming has a minimal effect on
hurricanes. It was published in December — by coincidence, the same
week that Mr. Gore received his Nobel Peace Prize.

In his acceptance speech, Mr. Gore didn’t dwell on the complexities of
the hurricane debate. Nor, in his roundup of the 2007 weather, did he
mention how calm the hurricane season had been. Instead, he alluded
somewhat mysteriously to “stronger storms in the Atlantic and
Pacific,” and focused on other kinds of disasters, like “massive
droughts” and “massive flooding.” “In the last few months,” Mr. Gore
said, “it has been harder and
harder to misinterpret the signs that our world is spinning out of
kilter.” But he was being too modest. Thanks to availability
entrepreneurs like him, misinterpreting the weather is getting easier
and easier.


I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via a
killer meteor.

Just the world as we know it. Even after the last big one 65.51mm years ago
the world was still here. Just not a lot of the species.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"Don White" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
BAR wrote:
HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I'd like to wish you a happy New Year, but I'm afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.
You're in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change - and that these images are a mere preview of
what's in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.



You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

You do know that much of comedy and humor is based upon truth. Why do we
laugh at the videos people send in to those video shows?


I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while to
see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

~~ Snerk ~~


You owe Tom big time for inappropriate use of ~~Serk~~.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Wed, 02 Jan 2008 06:59:19 -0500, HK wrote:

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm

By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I'd like to wish you a happy New Year, but I'm afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.

You're in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change - and that these images are a mere preview of
what's in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

Yes I do.

My point still stands.

As opposed to serious journalists like Any Borowitz?

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"Calif Bill" wrote in message
...

"Don White" wrote in message
...

"HK" wrote in message
...
BAR wrote:
HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I'd like to wish you a happy New Year, but I'm afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.
You're in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change - and that these images are a mere preview
of
what's in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.



You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

You do know that much of comedy and humor is based upon truth. Why do
we laugh at the videos people send in to those video shows?


I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while to
see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

~~ Snerk ~~


You owe Tom big time for inappropriate use of ~~Serk~~.

Nope... justwait said I was emulating Tom..not copying him. I took that to
mean I don't have to pay.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Jan 2, 3:37*pm, "Don White" wrote:
"Calif Bill" wrote in message

...







"Don White" wrote in message
. ..

"HK" wrote in message
...
BAR wrote:
HK wrote:
Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
Like rats - now it's the New York Times

Findings
In 2008, a 100 Percent Chance of Alarm
By JOHN TIERNEY

Published: January 1, 2008

I'd like to wish you a happy New Year, but I'm afraid I have a
different sort of prediction.
You're in for very bad weather. In 2008, your television will bring
you image after frightening image of natural havoc linked to global
warming. You will be told that such bizarre weather must be a sign of
dangerous climate change - and that these images are a mere preview
of
what's in store unless we act quickly to cool the planet.

You do know that Tierney is a sort of humor columnist, right?

I mean, you do know that, don't you?

Don't you?

:}

You do know that much of comedy and humor is based upon truth. Why do
we laugh at the videos people send in to those video shows?

I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while to
see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

~~ Snerk ~~

You owe Tom big time for inappropriate use of ~~Serk~~.

Nope... justwait said I was emulating Tom..not copying him. *I took that to
mean I don't have to pay.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

;)

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"Don White" wrote in message
...

"Calif Bill" wrote in message
...



I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while
to see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

~~ Snerk ~~


You owe Tom big time for inappropriate use of ~~Serk~~.

Nope... justwait said I was emulating Tom..not copying him. I took that
to mean I don't have to pay.


I think some folks are really starting to take that snerk copyright stuff
seriously Don.

They sure do...... we seem to be overloaded with copyright bureaucrats here.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"JimH" wrote in message
...

"Don White" wrote in message
...

"Calif Bill" wrote in message
...



I was just teasing Tom. I look at the You Tube stuff once in a while
to see people just like you proving Darwin correct.

~~ Snerk ~~


You owe Tom big time for inappropriate use of ~~Serk~~.

Nope... justwait said I was emulating Tom..not copying him. I took that
to mean I don't have to pay.


I think some folks are really starting to take that snerk copyright stuff
seriously Don.


Nope, just pointing out the penalty for inappropriate use of ~Snerk~

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

John wrote:
"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in
I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via a
killer meteor.

the last day of the earth is dec 20th 2012 - according to the Mayan
calendar. No need to worry about global warming, the price of gas, or even
what is in your bank account, because after that day it is gone anyway....



I think it is time to buy a bigger boat..

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:12:09 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

John wrote:
"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in
I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via a
killer meteor.

the last day of the earth is dec 20th 2012 - according to the Mayan
calendar. No need to worry about global warming, the price of gas, or even
what is in your bank account, because after that day it is gone anyway....

I think it is time to buy a bigger boat..

Preferably one that is Tsunami Proof.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:12:09 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

John wrote:
"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in
I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via a
killer meteor.
the last day of the earth is dec 20th 2012 - according to the Mayan
calendar. No need to worry about global warming, the price of gas, or even
what is in your bank account, because after that day it is gone anyway....
I think it is time to buy a bigger boat..

Preferably one that is Tsunami Proof.

With a very high transom.

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Jan 3, 4:00*pm, Short Wave Sportfishing wrote:
On Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:12:09 -0500, "Reginald P. Smithers III"
"Reggie is Here wrote:

John wrote:
"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in
I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via a
killer meteor.

the last day of the earth *is dec 20th 2012 - according to the Mayan
calendar. *No need to worry about global warming, the price of gas, or even
what is in your bank account, because after that day it is gone anyway.....

I think it is time to buy a bigger boat..

Preferably one that is Tsunami Proof.

We could just go visit Wayne and Richard on their Arks;)

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On Thu, 3 Jan 2008 13:08:42 -0500, "John" wrote:


"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in


I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via a
killer meteor.

the last day of the earth is dec 20th 2012 - according to the Mayan
calendar. No need to worry about global warming, the price of gas, or even
what is in your bank account, because after that day it is gone anyway....

Chuck mode on

The precise date of the expiration of b'ak'tun is not known due to the
vagries of time - in that nobody exactly knows what time scale the
Mayans used.

As written, the date is thought to be 12/21/12 which, if you were a
numerologist, should give you some pause for thought. However, the
corrected star chart calendar adjusts the date to 12/23/12 which kind
of ruins the whole "dyre" effect of 12/21/12.

Depending on which expert is discussing this, the year may even be
incorrect - off as much as minus four years and plus 5 years. There
are experts who believe that the "sun" calender was based on a earlier
calendar which used a completely different scale to record time and as
a result, nobody knows anything because it's not calculable.

Chuck mode off

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

"Short Wave Sportfishing" wrote in message
...
On Thu, 3 Jan 2008 13:08:42 -0500, "John" wrote:


"Reginald P. Smithers III" "Reggie is Here wrote in


I was watching PBS last night, the end of the world is going to come via
a
killer meteor.

the last day of the earth is dec 20th 2012 - according to the Mayan
calendar. No need to worry about global warming, the price of gas, or
even
what is in your bank account, because after that day it is gone anyway....

Chuck mode on

The precise date of the expiration of b'ak'tun is not known due to the
vagries of time - in that nobody exactly knows what time scale the
Mayans used.

As written, the date is thought to be 12/21/12 which, if you were a
numerologist, should give you some pause for thought. However, the
corrected star chart calendar adjusts the date to 12/23/12 which kind
of ruins the whole "dyre" effect of 12/21/12.

Depending on which expert is discussing this, the year may even be
incorrect - off as much as minus four years and plus 5 years. There
are experts who believe that the "sun" calender was based on a earlier
calendar which used a completely different scale to record time and as
a result, nobody knows anything because it's not calculable.

Chuck mode off

Minus 4, Oh, Oh....

Deserting the Global Warming Ship...
 

On 3-Jan-2008, "John" wrote:

Michael Moore, Jon Stewart and Al Franken are comedians but people
seem to take them seriously too.

Don't forget Rush Limbaugh and Bill Orielly.....

and Al Gore!