OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Report links global warming, storms
Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer

Tuesday, September 12, 2006


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Scientists say they have found what could be the key to ending a
yearlong debate about what is making hurricanes more violent and common
-- evidence that human-caused global warming is heating the ocean and
providing more fuel for the world's deadliest storms.

For the past 13 months, researchers have debated whether humanity is to
blame for a surge in hurricanes since the mid-1990s or whether the
increased activity is merely a natural cycle that occurs every several
decades.

Employing 80 computer simulations, scientists from Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory and other institutions concluded that there is only
one answer: that the burning of fossil fuels, which warms the climate,
is also heating the oceans.

Humans, Ben Santer, the report's lead author, told The Chronicle, are
making hurricanes globally more violent "and violent hurricanes more
common" -- at least, in the latter case, in the northern Atlantic
Ocean. The findings were published Monday in the latest issue of the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Hurricanes are born from tropical storms fueled by rising warm, moist
air in the tropics. The Earth's rotation puts a spin on the storms,
causing them to suck in more and more warm, moist air -- thus making
them bigger and more ferocious.

In that regard, the report says, since 1906, sea-surface temperatures
have warmed by between one-third and two-thirds of a degree Celsius --
or between 0.6 and 1.2 degrees Fahrenheit -- in the tropical parts of
the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, which are hurricane breeding grounds.

Critics of the theory that greenhouse gases are making hurricanes worse
remained unconvinced by the latest research.

Chris Landsea, a top hurricane expert, praised the Proceedings paper as
a worthwhile contribution to science, but said the authors failed to
persuasively counter earlier objections -- that warmer seas would have
negligible impact on hurricane activity.

Landsea, science and operations officer at the U.S. National Hurricane
Center in Miami, noted that modern satellite observations have made
hurricanes easier to detect and analyze, and that could foster the
impression of long-term trends in hurricane frequency or violence that
are, in fact, illusory. The surge in hurricane activity since the
mid-1990s is just the latest wave in repeating cycles of hurricane
activity, he said.

Philip Klotzbach, a hurricane forecaster at Colorado State University,
said that "sea-surface temperatures have certainly warmed over the past
century, and ... there is probably a human-induced (global warming)
component." But his own research indicates "there has been very little
change in global hurricane activity over the past 20 years, where the
data is most reliable."

Researchers report in the Proceedings paper an 84 percent chance that
at least two-thirds of the rise in ocean temperatures in these
so-called hurricane breeding grounds is caused by human activities --
and primarily by the production of greenhouse gases.

Tom Wigley, one of the world's top climate modelers and a co-author of
the paper, said in a teleconference last week that the scientists tried
to figure out what caused the oceans to warm by running many different
computer models based on possible single causes. Those causes ranged
from human production of greenhouse gases to natural variations in
solar intensity.

Wigley said that when the researchers reviewed the results, they found
that only one model was best able to explain changing ocean
temperatures, and it pointed to greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The
most infamous greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a product of human
burning of fossil fuels in cars and factories.

Wigley estimated the odds as smaller than 1 percent that ocean warming
could be blamed on random fluctuations in hurricane activity, as some
scientists suggest.

The debate among scientists was triggered in August 2005, a few weeks
before Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans, when hurricane expert
Kerry Emanuel of MIT wrote an article for the journal Nature proposing
that since the 1970s, ocean warming had made hurricanes about 50
percent more intense in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

Later, two scientific teams, both at Georgia Tech, estimated that
warmer sea-surface temperatures were boosting both hurricane intensity
and the number of the two worst types of hurricanes, known as Category
4 and Category 5 storms.

Nineteen scientists from 10 institutions were involved in the
Proceedings paper. In addition to Lawrence Livermore, other U.S.
institutions included Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the
National Center for Atmospheric Research, NASA, UC Merced, Scripps
Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla (San Diego County), and the
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Santer's co-authors included six Livermore colleagues -- Peter J.
Gleckler, Krishna AchutaRao, Jim Boyle, Mike Fiorino, Steve Klein and
Karl Taylor -- and 12 other researchers from elsewhere in the United
States and from Germany and England.

Assuming that warmer water equals more bad hurricanes, scary times
could be ahead for inhabitants of hurricane-prone regions.

That's because "the models that we've used to understand the causes of
(ocean warming) in these hurricane formation regions predict that the
oceans are going to get a lot warmer over the 21st century," Santer
said in a statement. "That causes some concern."



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How Hurricanes form in the Atlantic Ocean Hurricanes are born in far
western Africa, where modest windstorms known as tropical disturbances
pick up moisture from the warm sea and begin to whirl. As atmospheric
pressures drop, tropical depressions form with wind speeds up to 38
mph. As they speed westward they become tropical storms, lashing the
ocean with sheets of rain and winds blowing up to 70 mph or more,
finally building into hurricanes with winds exceeding 100 mph. --
Tropical disturbance -- Tropical depression -- Tropical storm --
Hurricane Source: NOAA, The New York Times Joe Shoulak / The Chronicle

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
On 12 Sep 2006 05:04:33 -0700, "basskisser"
wrote:

Report links global warming, storms
Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer

Have you seen the research that states, quite unequivocally I might
add, that the reason there are more bigger storms is that the
technology allowing for better eyeballing and dissecting storms has
caused over reporting of their strength.

The reverse of this is that storms before the advent of the
technological edge were under estimated as to their strength, size and
power - even in the number as satellites has given the modern
forecaster and scientist a tool to watch storms born, live and die in
remote areas of the earth.

Interesting concept.

Interesting, yes, but full of holes, so to speak. When the storm hits
an area that has weather instruments, even simple ones such as a
barometer and wind speed indicator, it is what it is.

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
On 12 Sep 2006 06:05:35 -0700, "basskisser"
wrote:


Shortwave Sportfishing wrote:
On 12 Sep 2006 05:04:33 -0700, "basskisser"
wrote:

Report links global warming, storms
Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer

Have you seen the research that states, quite unequivocally I might
add, that the reason there are more bigger storms is that the
technology allowing for better eyeballing and dissecting storms has
caused over reporting of their strength.

The reverse of this is that storms before the advent of the
technological edge were under estimated as to their strength, size and
power - even in the number as satellites has given the modern
forecaster and scientist a tool to watch storms born, live and die in
remote areas of the earth.

Interesting concept.

Interesting, yes, but full of holes, so to speak. When the storm hits
an area that has weather instruments, even simple ones such as a
barometer and wind speed indicator, it is what it is.

Well that's not really true for, say ten years or so ago, but that
still doesn't address the main issue - how severe were the historical
storms of record. Some studies say that that's it's about 70/30 over
estimating the actual severity of any particular storm. Others are in
the 50/50 category - basically a wash.

There has been quite accurate barometric pressure indicators as well as
wind speed indicators for many, many years

You also have to take into consideration building codes and locations
of major population centers for historical storms - current codes are
much safer in higher winds and water situations. Damage in, say a Cat
1 storm is hardly noticeable where in historical storms, it would be
much more severe.

Well, yes and no. Large buildings, before the vast knowledge we have
today in the engineering field were often over designed. With the
advancement of structural modeling, the goal was to make a structure as
economical as possible and still resist the forces applied.

There is also an effect from sun spots. The current cycle has been
much more active than previous cycles and it's pretty much a proven
fact that all that energy does affect our atmosphere in extreme ways
and in ways not fully understood as of yet.

Yes, that is true.

So to just patently say that storm severity and frequency is
increasing and it's global warming as a cause is not only short
sighted but lousy science.

What is true is true. No one is saying that storm severity and
frequency is 100% because of man, at least as far as I've seen. I'm
not, anyway.

Consider this year's cycle. By the global warming model, we were all
about to be screwed, blued and tattooed - as many as 14 hurricanes and
17 named storms or some such. So far, two and seven.

Ain't happened has it?

Again, there are more variables. You are just trying to take one and
say that it hasn't done anything.

If you really want to swallow the global warming Kool Aid

There is overwhelming science that man has contributed to global
warming. Only Bush has told you that that isn't the case.

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

"basskisser" wrote in message
oups.com...

No one is saying that storm severity and
frequency is 100% because of man, at least as far as I've seen. I'm
not, anyway.

But, it's more patriotic to pretend someone said that, and then say nasty
things about them. You are being watched.

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Almost had a boating related post. (Hurricanes).
Too bad you couldn't avoid screwing it up with political diarrhea in
the header.

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Chuck Gould wrote:
Almost had a boating related post. (Hurricanes).
Too bad you couldn't avoid screwing it up with political diarrhea in
the header.

Chuck, have you ever posted anything political here?

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

JoeSpareBedroom wrote:
"basskisser" wrote in message
oups.com...

No one is saying that storm severity and
frequency is 100% because of man, at least as far as I've seen. I'm
not, anyway.

But, it's more patriotic to pretend someone said that, and then say nasty
things about them. You are being watched.

Amen!!! Anytime now I'll be accused of all sorts of things that has
never happened...you watch!

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

basskisser wrote:
Chuck Gould wrote:
Almost had a boating related post. (Hurricanes).
Too bad you couldn't avoid screwing it up with political diarrhea in
the header.

Chuck, have you ever posted anything political here?

Not for a long time.

In fact, if you'd stop staring in the mirror and take a good look at
the NG, you'll see that
almost *nobody* is posting political crap here anymore. Makes it a
better group.

With very rare exceptions:

NOYB has stopped.
Harry has stopped.
I have stopped.
John H has stopped
jps has stopped
"Smithers" has stopped
Bert has stopped
JimH has pretty well stopped
Doug Kanter has pretty well stopped or cut back a lot
Don White has pretty well stopped or cut back a lot
And the list goes on.

Some of the non-boaters who used to lurk here looking for a political
fist fight have disappeared, and more actual boaters are participating.
That may or may not suit you, but I think that's a great thing for a
boating NG.

And, once again we devolve, (with your question "have you ever posted
anything political here?") to you setting standards for your personal
behavior based on the worst examples you can find. Why don't you ask
yourself how *you* would like to define yourself? If you want to post
political crap and personal attacks here all the time, at least have
the stones to say "Screw you, ya *******. I'll post this off topic and
inflammatory stuff because it pleases me to do so and to keep things in
a turmoil!"
That would earn you more respect than "But that little boy over there
spit first!"

There must be 1000 newsgroups. Just because a guy goes fishing a couple
of times a year shouldn't give him license to f*** up the boating
newsgroup with "BUSHCO" bait.

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Chuck Gould wrote:
snip...take a good look at the NG, you'll see that
almost *nobody* is posting political crap here anymore. Makes it a
better group.

With very rare exceptions:

snip
Don White has pretty well stopped or cut back a lot
And the list goes on.


Does this mean my 'Wanted Poster' will be recalled and the bounty
removed from my head?

OT But BushCo says humans aren't to blame!!
 

Chuck Gould wrote:
basskisser wrote:
Chuck Gould wrote:
Almost had a boating related post. (Hurricanes).
Too bad you couldn't avoid screwing it up with political diarrhea in
the header.

Chuck, have you ever posted anything political here?

Not for a long time.

In fact, if you'd stop staring in the mirror and take a good look at
the NG, you'll see that
almost *nobody* is posting political crap here anymore. Makes it a
better group.

With very rare exceptions:

NOYB has stopped.
Harry has stopped.
I have stopped.
John H has stopped
jps has stopped
"Smithers" has stopped
Bert has stopped
JimH has pretty well stopped
Doug Kanter has pretty well stopped or cut back a lot
Don White has pretty well stopped or cut back a lot
And the list goes on.


You can include me in the stopped or cut back and pretty well stopped
catagory.