"Jim Carter" wrote in message
...

"NOYB" wrote in message
nk.net...
Nearly 18% of Chinese exports go to the US. Since we're discussing the
effect that Chinese aggression against Taiwan would have, then it's safe
to
say that China would lose the following trade partners in the event of a
war
with Taiwan: US, Japan, and Taiwan. Together, those three countries
make
up 3 of China's top 5 trade partners...and almost 44% of China's total
exports. It's also likely that China would lose the following as trade
partners: Hong Kong, S. Korea, and Germany. That'd account for 70% of
China's trade.
Keep in mind, that this says nothing about the effect that our
corporations
would have in pulling their factories out China.

I do think your calculations are very incorrect.

If the PRC would be taking Taiwan back into the fold, they don't lose
Taiwan
as a trading partner, then gain it. Japan would not be lost as a trading
partner for China as Japan has too much to lose with their trade with
China
to worry about the little bit with Taiwan. Also, the Japanese people are
opposed to any war and their government would topple if there was any hint
of an impending war. The exact same can be said of Germany as well as the
rest of the European Economic Community.

Where have you been when you are mentioning Hong Kong in your
calculations?
Hong Kong "is" a part of the PRC and has been since July 1, 1997.

The American corporations pulling out of China would have almost no effect
as they would be immediately replaced by corporations from The European
Economic Community, Brazil and from Japan.


This is the silliest statement of your post. Who would the EU, Brazilian,
and Japanese Corporations sell their products to if the US quit doing
business with China?

First of all, overnight, China would lose almost 20% of its export business.
There'd be a huge surplus of goods with nobody to sell them to.

Secondly, the EU and Brazil have unemployment rates that are around 10%.
(Germany's is up over 12%) Suppose the EU and Brazil rushed to fill the
void left by American companies. How high would that push the current rate?
15% unemployment? 20%? As Henry Ford pointed out, you have to pay your
workers enough that they can afford to buy your product. The Chinese don't;
consequently, they must rely on export. Who will they export to? Not the
US. And not the EU because the EU will have too many unemployed people to
purchase the goods.

If the US pulled out of the Chinese economy, we'd be hurt, particularly in
the short term...but they'd be devastated to a point from which they'd never
recover.