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Think it's over?
You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Think it's over?
On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing plant or something. If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on criminal. I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind. |
Think it's over?
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing plant or something. If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on criminal. I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind. Problem is that the flu virus has been with us for a long time, and there's still no "herd immunity". There is a vaccine that is effective sometimes for some folks. I think that's all we can hope for here. |
Think it's over?
On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. === Both states are thinly populated so an outbreak in a single hotspot could skew the numbers quickly. That's what originally happened in South Dakota with a huge hotspot in a single meat packing plant. Both states aslo have significant numbers of Native American reservations which are vunerable to rapid spread. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Think it's over?
On Mon, 25 May 2020 19:15:45 -0700 (PDT), Its Me
wrote: On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote: On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing plant or something. If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on criminal. I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind. Problem is that the flu virus has been with us for a long time, and there's still no "herd immunity". There is a vaccine that is effective sometimes for some folks. I think that's all we can hope for here. I don't remember us ever closing as much as a kissing booth over it tho. That includes some with comparable per capita deaths. The difference is totally political. |
Think it's over?
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Think it's over?
On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 10:51:05 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Mon, 25 May 2020 19:15:45 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote: On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote: On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing plant or something. If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on criminal. I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind. Problem is that the flu virus has been with us for a long time, and there's still no "herd immunity". There is a vaccine that is effective sometimes for some folks. I think that's all we can hope for here. I don't remember us ever closing as much as a kissing booth over it tho. That includes some with comparable per capita deaths. The difference is totally political. I agree with the paragraph just above this but you previously wrote, "The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind." That's what I don't believe, and what I was responding to. |
Think it's over?
On Tue, 26 May 2020 11:06:40 -0700 (PDT), Its Me
wrote: On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 10:51:05 PM UTC-4, wrote: On Mon, 25 May 2020 19:15:45 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote: On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote: On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing plant or something. If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on criminal. I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind. Problem is that the flu virus has been with us for a long time, and there's still no "herd immunity". There is a vaccine that is effective sometimes for some folks. I think that's all we can hope for here. I don't remember us ever closing as much as a kissing booth over it tho. That includes some with comparable per capita deaths. The difference is totally political. I agree with the paragraph just above this but you previously wrote, "The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind." That's what I don't believe, and what I was responding to. Without some cadre of people who are immune to a virus, every resurgence would be a pandemic. The only thing that sets this apart from dozens of other viruses is it's novelty. Nobody has any antibodies to it until they get them right now. We keep hearing about the Spanish Flu but that is H1N1 and most of us are immune, either from our flu shot or simply having it before. |
Think it's over?
On Tuesday, May 26, 2020 at 9:47:16 PM UTC-4, wrote:
On Tue, 26 May 2020 11:06:40 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote: On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 10:51:05 PM UTC-4, wrote: On Mon, 25 May 2020 19:15:45 -0700 (PDT), Its Me wrote: On Monday, May 25, 2020 at 8:37:44 PM UTC-4, wrote: On Mon, 25 May 2020 18:50:32 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: You might want to think again. CDC covid-19 forecast based on about 19 different studies says we are not out of the woods yet. Forecasts only indicate a *slowing* of the increase in new cases through June 15th. No forecasts after that. Looks like the increase will be in areas/states that have been minimally affected so far. Hard hit areas will do better. For example, New York has seen a 17 percent drop in new cases from May 12h to May 19th. New Jersey has seen a 19 percent drop as has Pennsylvania. Massachusetts has seen a 5 percent decrease. Other states are rising with North Carolina up 41 percent. Virginia is up 14 percent and Florida is up 12 percent over the May 12th to 19th period. Here's an odd statistic: North Dakota is up 39 percent yet it's border sharing neighbor of South Dakota is down by 55 percent. At a certain point we really need to look closer at where these clusters are. Is this in the general population or is this a packing plant or something. If the nursing homes are not locked down by now, that borders on criminal. I do expect this to fire back up this winter tho, unless we get a working vaccine by then. The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind. Problem is that the flu virus has been with us for a long time, and there's still no "herd immunity". There is a vaccine that is effective sometimes for some folks. I think that's all we can hope for here. I don't remember us ever closing as much as a kissing booth over it tho. That includes some with comparable per capita deaths. The difference is totally political. I agree with the paragraph just above this but you previously wrote, "The answer is ultimately a herd immunity of some kind." That's what I don't believe, and what I was responding to. Without some cadre of people who are immune to a virus, every resurgence would be a pandemic. The only thing that sets this apart from dozens of other viruses is it's novelty. Nobody has any antibodies to it until they get them right now. We keep hearing about the Spanish Flu but that is H1N1 and most of us are immune, either from our flu shot or simply having it before. I disagree. An effective vaccine would (could) prevent a new pandemic without having to get the virus. And the science isn't settled on there being acquired immunity to COVID. See the link below. Hell, even an effective vaccine doesn't seem to give you immunity or else you wouldn't need a new one every year. At some point you would just be immune to all the strains, right? As for the Spanish flu, that came back 90 years later slightly mutated into the Swine flu. COVID has already mutated according to some reports. So some folk may get immunity to a virus that is no longer a threat, or the immunity doesn't work on the new one? https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/coronavirus-immunity-complicated-180974970/ Oh, and herd immunity: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html |
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