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Great website
wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 20:16:56 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: This morning I saw a chart that stated there were 121,000+ known cases in the USA, based upon an unstated number of tests. How many "unknown" cases? Who knows? No one knows. How available are the tests in every community? Who knows? No one knows. Et cetera. We do know that the death rate is 18% for those who have either recovered or died. He death rate right now is per thousand people. Not those who have survived or died. === Stop me if I'm wrong but I believe the death rate for those who have died is 100%. It is. But I included recovered. Which makes a scary statistic. But excludes those who recovered without medical care. |
Great website
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:54:48 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 3/29/2020 7:51 PM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 16:55:40 -0400, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 08:36:13 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks. How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. It is simply because social distancing is a lot easier out in the country than it is in New York. In Manhattan, each person only has less than 400 feet to spread out, throughout their entire time there. That gets a whole lot smaller when you include the bridge and tunnel crowd who then take the virus to the boroughs and Jersey. Hell, the subway is still running and all of the transport across and under the rivers is too. That may be the worst case scenario for the spread of any disease. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th. I then generated a chart for the fun of it. It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show. It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. A vaccine is really the only hope beyond herd immunity coming from the people who survive it. Or an effective treatment, which could help people survive it. That's what my newly found optimism predicts. I have a sense that it's a week or so away. If you're right, I'll buy you a beer. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Great website
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 23:58:14 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote: John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 16:55:40 -0400, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 08:36:13 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks. How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. It is simply because social distancing is a lot easier out in the country than it is in New York. In Manhattan, each person only has less than 400 feet to spread out, throughout their entire time there. That gets a whole lot smaller when you include the bridge and tunnel crowd who then take the virus to the boroughs and Jersey. Hell, the subway is still running and all of the transport across and under the rivers is too. That may be the worst case scenario for the spread of any disease. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th. I then generated a chart for the fun of it. It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show. It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. A vaccine is really the only hope beyond herd immunity coming from the people who survive it. Or an effective treatment, which could help people survive it. -- Freedom Isn't Free! That just helps the herd immunity. Is that bad? -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Great website
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Great website
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 01:49:10 -0400, wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:53:06 -0400, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 13:01:52 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 12:49 PM, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 12:23:04 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 11:29 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 10:23:13 -0400, Justan Ohlphart wrote: On 3/29/2020 9:09 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:52 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/29/20 8:36 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks.* How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th.* I then generated a chart for the fun of it.* It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show.* It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. Until the testing is near-universal, the value of knowing the "number of confirmed cases" is virtually nothing, especially in comparison to other countries or previous confirmed cases of earlier flu-like diseases. How many tests per state would one need to know the extent of the spread of the virus? Would you want to consider the number of tests per 1000 persons in a state? What are your parameters? This morning I saw a chart that stated there were 121,000+ known cases in the USA, based upon an unstated number of tests. How many "unknown" cases? Who knows? No one knows. How available are the tests in every community? Who knows? No one knows. Et cetera. All true but again, what does it matter?* The testing produces a number used to determine percentages of deaths.* That's all it does. Thus far, testing has done absolutely *nothing* to control the spread of the virus. I think doc Fauci has it right.* He says we should assume that *everyone* is infected and to act accordingly. I hate to disagree with you but how else can you measure the success or failure of measures to isolate, control, treat, or prevent the virus. By looking at the actual cases? Sounds reasonable to me. The only way to measure the success of treatment is to look at confirmed cases. I agree. I may be wrong or don't understand the logic but mass testing for the sake of mass testing accomplishes nothing. Last report I heard was that the USA is testing over 100,000 people a day now. What benefit has it served other than to confirm more cases thus lowering the death rate percentage? The spread and exponential rate of infections continue and there's indication it is slowing down or "flattening the curve" at all. === One of the reasons for the exponential growth is the long incubation period, about 15 days, where people are not yet showing symptoms but are communicating the disease. Mandatory testing, especially at travel checkpoints, could help to slow the spread. It could also be helpful for healthcare workers and first responders. As a group they are very vunerable, and the more quickly they are detected and isolated, the less chance of them passing it along. I understand. However, we are in a serious and major exponential spread of this virus with many areas of the country yet to begin. I think it would be more prudent at this point in time to encourage or even enforce if necessary the recommendations of the CDC and other professionals. As Doc Fauci recommends: Assume you are infected and limit your travel and exposure to others accordingly. We can crunch numbers later. === Even if all travel outside the home is banned and quarantines are strictly enforced, there is still the issue with first responders, health care professionals and delivery people. I think the new test that Abbott labs has developed could help a lot with that. Supposedly it can give results in less than 15 minutes, short enough that critical workers could be tested every day at the beginning of their shift. That gets complicated. I am the care giver for my FIL. I have to go over there regularly. I guess I could tell the cop he has to do it. What about going to the grocery store? Go get your drugs? Go get a part to fix your water? I am sure as a CE I would have a card. Somebody has to keep 9-11, the cop's lap top (host) and the ATMs going. I don't believe all travel outside the home has been banned anywhere, although the cops are stopping folks and asking where they're going. In France, folks are being stopped if they are carrying only one baguette. They are supposed to buy a few days worth at a time to cut down on the outside trips. https://www.france24.com/en/20200326...virus-lockdown -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Great website
On 3/30/2020 7:50 AM, John wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 19:54:48 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 7:51 PM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 16:55:40 -0400, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 08:36:13 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks. How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. It is simply because social distancing is a lot easier out in the country than it is in New York. In Manhattan, each person only has less than 400 feet to spread out, throughout their entire time there. That gets a whole lot smaller when you include the bridge and tunnel crowd who then take the virus to the boroughs and Jersey. Hell, the subway is still running and all of the transport across and under the rivers is too. That may be the worst case scenario for the spread of any disease. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th. I then generated a chart for the fun of it. It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show. It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. A vaccine is really the only hope beyond herd immunity coming from the people who survive it. Or an effective treatment, which could help people survive it. That's what my newly found optimism predicts. I have a sense that it's a week or so away. If you're right, I'll buy you a beer. Thanks but all beer does for me now is to make me burp. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Great website
John wrote:
On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 23:58:14 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 16:55:40 -0400, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 08:36:13 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks. How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. It is simply because social distancing is a lot easier out in the country than it is in New York. In Manhattan, each person only has less than 400 feet to spread out, throughout their entire time there. That gets a whole lot smaller when you include the bridge and tunnel crowd who then take the virus to the boroughs and Jersey. Hell, the subway is still running and all of the transport across and under the rivers is too. That may be the worst case scenario for the spread of any disease. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th. I then generated a chart for the fun of it. It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show. It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. A vaccine is really the only hope beyond herd immunity coming from the people who survive it. Or an effective treatment, which could help people survive it. -- Freedom Isn't Free! That just helps the herd immunity. Is that bad? -- Freedom Isn't Free! Nope, but means a long time battle to fix the herd. |
Great website
On Mon, 30 Mar 2020 17:35:02 -0000 (UTC), Bill
wrote: John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 23:58:14 -0000 (UTC), Bill wrote: John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 16:55:40 -0400, wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 08:36:13 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks. How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. It is simply because social distancing is a lot easier out in the country than it is in New York. In Manhattan, each person only has less than 400 feet to spread out, throughout their entire time there. That gets a whole lot smaller when you include the bridge and tunnel crowd who then take the virus to the boroughs and Jersey. Hell, the subway is still running and all of the transport across and under the rivers is too. That may be the worst case scenario for the spread of any disease. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th. I then generated a chart for the fun of it. It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show. It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. A vaccine is really the only hope beyond herd immunity coming from the people who survive it. Or an effective treatment, which could help people survive it. -- Freedom Isn't Free! That just helps the herd immunity. Is that bad? -- Freedom Isn't Free! Nope, but means a long time battle to fix the herd. I'm not thinking of fixing the whole herd, just me for starters! -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Great website
On 3/29/2020 12:14 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/29/2020 10:23 AM, Justan Ohlphart wrote: On 3/29/2020 9:09 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:52 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/29/20 8:36 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/29/2020 8:08 AM, John wrote: On Sun, 29 Mar 2020 07:01:11 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: Here's a great website for both general world wide statistics and those related specifically to the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.worldometers.info/ That's where the comparisons of deaths per 1M population came from: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Note that we're still doing better than those countries with the spectacular health systems, according to our resident liberal. I am still bothered with all the emphasis placed on the percentage of deaths per population though. It's a simple, mathematical statistical measurement that "feels good" but meanwhile the virus is spreading across the country. I suppose it's a reflection of a superior healthcare system in that fewer people die as a percentage of the population but meanwhile the "experts" are saying that NY won't "peak" for another 3 to 4 weeks.Â* How they get that estimate is beyond me and it doesn't reflect other parts of the country that are targets for the virus but haven't even begun to see the exponential rates of increase. Last night, using the historical data from the website you provided a couple of weeks ago, I created a spreadsheet of the number of confirmed cases and deaths in Massachusetts for the month of March, starting with March 1st and ending with March 28th.Â* I then generated a chart for the fun of it.Â* It reflected the same exponential rate that the national CDC graphs show.Â* It was discouraging, so I deleted it. Unless a proven and effective treatment is found (not a vaccine) I fear we are in for the long, long haul with this. Until the testing is near-universal, the value of knowing the "number of confirmed cases" is virtually nothing, especially in comparison to other countries or previous confirmed cases of earlier flu-like diseases. How many tests per state would one need to know the extent of the spread of the virus? Would you want to consider the number of tests per 1000 persons in a state? What are your parameters? This morning I saw a chart that stated there were 121,000+ known cases in the USA, based upon an unstated number of tests. How many "unknown" cases? Who knows? No one knows. How available are the tests in every community? Who knows? No one knows. Et cetera. All true but again, what does it matter?Â* The testing produces a number used to determine percentages of deaths.Â* That's all it does. Thus far, testing has done absolutely *nothing* to control the spread of the virus. I think doc Fauci has it right.Â* He says we should assume that *everyone* is infected and to act accordingly. I hate to disagree with you but how else can you measure the success or failure of measures to isolate, control, treat, or prevent the virus. By the number of peopleÂ* getting sick and the rate at which they do so.Â* Testing for the sake of testing does nothin Identifying carriers who have no symptoms and culling them from the herd might be a significant benefit to the city of New York and other places that have high population density. -- Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no longer exists, if it ever did at all. |
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