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Seasonal Flu
With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/24/20 9:30 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).Â* Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore.Â* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.Â* Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. Agreed. But, I tend to believe the real doctors and scientists and those politicians who are in a position of power, have some knowledge, and take it very seriously. A few governors fall into that category, but not Trump, not if he is talking about some sort of miracle to accompany Easter. Your comment about "corvid-19 so far" does not take into account the fact that we have a decent though not completely accurate total of the number of flu cases in a given flu season. We're no where close to being able to do that for COVOID-19. I didn't even go out to get the mail today. We're still good for decent food for at least the rest of the week, and if I do go out to the grocery store, it'll be around 7 am when the stores are not crowded, and I'll be wearing blue doctor's office gloves and carrying a spritzer of Purell. |
Seasonal Flu
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I suspect the financial experts, who we are not hearing much from are saying that if we keep shutting things down and don't start backing off a little, by Easter there might not be an economy to recover. It is funny that 1009 was an economic emergency that we needed to address in days and this crash can stand to be put off indefinitely. Neel Kaskari says the Fed has unlimited power to simply print money and throw it in the air. Weimar Germany thought the same thing ... until it's money was simply worthless. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...es-2020-03-22/ |
Seasonal Flu
Mr. Luddite wrote:
With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. My wife had the flew the first of the month. The video doctor visit, he said the vaccine this year was only 40% effective, so a lot of flu cases. Says it is unfair. She self quarantined for 9 days because of the flu, and then gets COVID quarantine. |
Seasonal Flu
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I think the 3-4 weeks is from the original exponential growth. But flattening the curve may extend that time out aways. |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19). Percentages produce a different perspective than raw numbers. Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%. Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 20:51:29 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I think I mentioned that a few weeks ago, but it wasn't interesting until Trump mentioned it in his briefing the other day. It would be hard for the liberals to start using flu statistics against Trump. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:58:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote:
On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote: On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. Agree with that 100%. His 'pre-briefing' routine is getting old. I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. Another consideration on the Covid-19 statistics is that the mortality rate is based on the number of deaths of confirmed cases of Covid-19. It does not include those cases which are unconfirmed or not even reported. Increasing the denominator with those would change the mortality rate significantly. The other day you mentioned a number of 300,000 unreported cases, I believe. Add those to the current denominator, and the rate changes significantly. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/24/2020 9:36 PM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/24/20 9:30 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).Â* Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore.Â* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.Â* Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. Agreed. But, I tend to believe the real doctors and scientists and those politicians who are in a position of power, have some knowledge, and take it very seriously. A few governors fall into that category, but not Trump, not if he is talking about some sort of miracle to accompany Easter. Your comment about "corvid-19 so far" does not take into account the fact that we have a decent though not completely accurate total of the number of flu cases in a given flu season. We're no where close to being able to do that for COVOID-19. I didn't even go out to get the mail today. We're still good for decent food for at least the rest of the week, and if I do go out to the grocery store, it'll be around 7 am when the stores are not crowded, and I'll be wearing blue doctor's office gloves and carrying a spritzer of Purell. Got you worried eh? Imagine how scary it would be if Sleepy Joe was behind the wheel. -- Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no longer exists, if it ever did at all. |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/2020 9:05 AM, John wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:58:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote: On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. Agree with that 100%. His 'pre-briefing' routine is getting old. I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. Another consideration on the Covid-19 statistics is that the mortality rate is based on the number of deaths of confirmed cases of Covid-19. It does not include those cases which are unconfirmed or not even reported. Increasing the denominator with those would change the mortality rate significantly. The other day you mentioned a number of 300,000 unreported cases, I believe. Add those to the current denominator, and the rate changes significantly. It's a good thing I am not a scientist tasked with trying to track and figure this stuff out. I don't have a clue what's going on. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. You can't even manage your own business properly. Who are you to say what anyone needs to do? -- Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no longer exists, if it ever did at all. |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 03:18:46 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19). Percentages produce a different perspective than raw numbers. Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%. Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. Is anyone surprised about China. You can only hide so long from something like this. It started with one guy and one guy can start it up again until a significant number of the population is immune. If a totalitarian culture like China is having this problem, imagine what happens in a free society. We are seeing here right now. People who are infected are fleeing New York and spraying the infection across the country at 600 MPH. |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite"
wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/20 8:58 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote: On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).Â* Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore.Â* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.Â* Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business".Â* He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is.Â* His description of "the test"Â* being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. I understand his concerns.Â* The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. Please. Trump doesn't give a **** about this country. His only concern is the impact this ****eree might have on his election this fall. |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/2020 9:56 AM, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 8:58 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote: On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).Â* Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore.Â* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.Â* Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business".Â* He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is.Â* His description of "the test"Â* being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. I understand his concerns.Â* The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. Please. Trump doesn't give a **** about this country. His only concern is the impact this ****eree might have on his election this fall. Right. And he's unique in that respect, huh? -- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. https://www.avg.com |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. Here's some info on timing of the updates: https://nssac.github.io/covid-19/dashboard/ What’s your data level and how often do you update your data? For USA, we provide data at the county level, and we update it multiple times during the day; For China, India, Canada, Germany, Greece, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Peru, we provide data at the State/Province level and it is updated at least twice a day; For Other regions/countries, we provide data at the country level and update it at least twice a day. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
Mr. Luddite wrote:
On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19). Percentages produce a different perspective than raw numbers. Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%. Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. Read this morning that the Chinese are opening up Hubei province as the cases are almost not growing. If a second wave is possible, world is deep doo doo. |
Seasonal Flu
Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 8:58 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote: On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number).Â* Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore.Â* Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future.Â* Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business".Â* He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is.Â* His description of "the test"Â* being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. I understand his concerns.Â* The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. Please. Trump doesn't give a **** about this country. His only concern is the impact this ****eree might have on his election this fall. What an ignoramus you are. |
Seasonal Flu
Bill Wrote in message:
Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 8:58 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:42 AM, John wrote: On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 +IBM 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 +IBM 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 +IBM 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 +IBM 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. Trump is pulling back somewhat on his original statements to "open the USA for business". He's now refining it to reflect a limited, slow "opening" depending on the data available in another 2 or 3 weeks. I just wish he'd be a little more professional in how he announces his thoughts, rather than brag about how smart he is. His description of "the test" being "very unpleasant" with the swab being "stuck way up into your nose and then a left turn at the eyeball" may be a goofy attempt at humor but it sure doesn't inspire people to be tested or to calm the public's concerns. I understand his concerns. The medical/scientific community being academics who routinely deal with crunching numbers, creating models, etc., are not as influenced by the economic ramifications. Trump and state governors recognize the need for revenues to keep the country and states operating. It's a tough balance. Please. Trump doesn't give a **** about this country. His only concern is the impact this ****eree might have on his election this fall. What an ignoramus you are. How many ways are there to say Fat Harry is an ignorant jackass. Too many to enumerate, I'd guess. -- .. ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
Seasonal Flu
Wrote in message:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 03:18:46 -0400, "Mr. wrote:On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 +IBM 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 +IBM 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 +IBM 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 +IBM 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths(flu versus covid-19). Percentages producea different perspective than raw numbers. Flu looks like about a0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%. Yet the rawnumbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally differentperspective.I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride.There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginningto climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero"which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun.Is anyone surprised about China. You can only hide so long fromsomething like this. It started with one guy and one guy can start itup again until a significant number of the population is immune. If atotalitarian culture like China is having this problem, imagine whathappens in a free society. We are seeing here right now. People who are infected are fleeing NewYork and spraying the infection across the country at 600 MPH. Destination Florida and points beyond. Our governer is doing a ****ty job at containment. Do you think New Yorkers care about self imposed isolation? They wouldn't be here if they did. -- .. ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 13:44:57 -0400 (EDT), Justan Ohlphart wrote:
Wrote in message: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 03:18:46 -0400, "Mr. wrote:On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says.It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths(flu versus covid-19). Percentages producea different perspective than raw numbers. Flu looks like about a0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%. Yet the rawnumbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally differentperspective.I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride.There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginningto climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero"which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun.Is anyone surprised about China. You can only hide so long fromsomething like this. It started with one guy and one guy can start itup again until a significant number of the population is immune. If atotalitarian culture like China is having this problem, imagine whathappens in a free society. We are seeing here right now. People who are infected are fleeing NewYork and spraying the infection across the country at 600 MPH. Destination Florida and points beyond. Our governer is doing a ****ty job at containment. Do you think New Yorkers care about self imposed isolation? They wouldn't be here if they did. A whole lot of New Yorkers don't give a ****, and their mayor does nothing about it, except bitch about Trump, of course. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:42:33 -0400, John wrote:
On Tue, 24 Mar 2020 21:30:41 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. I am tired, so maybe I am screwed up but the flu numbers mean that those who got the flu (as of March 14th) is roughly 1,000 times the number of people who have confirmed corvid-19 (latest number). Deaths due to flu are roughly 30-40 times those of corvid-19 so far. I don't know who to believe anymore. Saw Mayor Bill De Blasio earlier delivering a very dire message of what he sees in our future. Then, as you say, Trump thinks everything will be hunky-dory in about 3-4 weeks. I think the bottom line is nobody knows. I don't think Trump has said everything will be hunky-dory at all. He would like to get some folks back into the workplace by Easter. Not all the folks, and maybe not a large percent of the folks, but the folks who live and work in areas where the virus is not inflicting great damage. It only works if they screen everyone coming and going. |
Seasonal Flu
|
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/20 6:21 PM, wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. How do you know "the curve" is representative of anything more than spotty reports from some sources? |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:21:38 -0400, wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. Again, here is the f'ing update schedule: What’s your data level and how often do you update your data? For USA, we provide data at the county level, and we update it multiple times during the day; For China, India, Canada, Germany, Greece, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Peru, we provide data at the State/Province level and it is updated at least twice a day; For Other regions/countries, we provide data at the country level and update it at least twice a day. https://nssac.github.io/covid-19/dashboard/ -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:24:32 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote:
On 3/25/20 6:21 PM, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. How do you know "the curve" is representative of anything more than spotty reports from some sources? Cases are required to be reported to CDC. Of course, that's only in this country. You, yourself, have commented about the vast number of cases which are unreported. Increasing the denominator decreases the mortality rate. Keep that in mind, dip****! -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
Seasonal Flu
On 3/25/2020 6:34 PM, John wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:24:32 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 6:21 PM, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. How do you know "the curve" is representative of anything more than spotty reports from some sources? Cases are required to be reported to CDC. Of course, that's only in this country. You, yourself, have commented about the vast number of cases which are unreported. Increasing the denominator decreases the mortality rate. Keep that in mind, dip****! -- Freedom Isn't Free! Fat Harry has a complete dossier on all the unreported cases. -- Pity Fat Harry. His ability to produce rational thought on his own, no longer exists, if it ever did at all. |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:24:32 -0400, Keyser Soze
wrote: On 3/25/20 6:21 PM, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. How do you know "the curve" is representative of anything more than spotty reports from some sources? The more spotty reports you get the better chance of the curve being right. I am saying looking at daily or hourly numbers is a crap shoot. Trends are when you blend all of those reports together, maybe throw out the highs and lows as anomalies and then average it over time. The numbers might be spotty but if these are trained professionals the data should be good. The biggest chance for incomplete data is about the undiagnosed. They probably never contacted any medical worker to get reported. |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:29:20 -0400, John wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:21:38 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. Again, here is the f'ing update schedule: What’s your data level and how often do you update your data? For USA, we provide data at the county level, and we update it multiple times during the day; For China, India, Canada, Germany, Greece, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Peru, we provide data at the State/Province level and it is updated at least twice a day; For Other regions/countries, we provide data at the country level and update it at least twice a day. https://nssac.github.io/covid-19/dashboard/ This is like staring at a stock ticker. It will just make you nuts. |
Seasonal Flu
wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:24:32 -0400, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 6:21 PM, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): Â*From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country isÂ* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).Â* PercentagesÂ* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.Â* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.Â*Â* Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. How do you know "the curve" is representative of anything more than spotty reports from some sources? The more spotty reports you get the better chance of the curve being right. I am saying looking at daily or hourly numbers is a crap shoot. Trends are when you blend all of those reports together, maybe throw out the highs and lows as anomalies and then average it over time. The numbers might be spotty but if these are trained professionals the data should be good. The biggest chance for incomplete data is about the undiagnosed. They probably never contacted any medical worker to get reported. But Harry puts major credence in political polls, which may even use a bigger crap shoot of data. |
Seasonal Flu
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 23:42:00 -0400, wrote:
On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:29:20 -0400, John wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 18:21:38 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 09:53:40 -0400, wrote: On Wed, 25 Mar 2020 08:23:10 -0400, "Mr. Luddite" wrote: On 3/25/2020 8:08 AM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/25/20 3:18 AM, Mr. Luddite wrote: On 3/24/2020 9:20 PM, Keyser Soze wrote: On 3/24/20 8:51 PM, Mr. Luddite wrote: With all the focus on convid-19 and some of the dire warnings, little is said much about the regular, seasonal Flu. I looked up some info: The regular, seasonal Flu has peaked in terms of how many have caught it and is beginning to decline. But the stats are surprising. According to CDC estimates (USA): *From October 1, 2019, through March 14, 2020, there have been: 38,000,000 – 54,000,000 flu illnesses 17,000,000 – 25,000,000 flu medical visits 390,000 – 710,000 flu hospitalizations 23,000 – 59,000 flu deaths Another website with Flu statistics that also referenced data from the CDC had slightly lower numbers but still within the ranges shown above. Makes me wonder what the deal is with the corvid-19 virus (which is an entirely different virus). Total deaths in the USA as of this post totals 696 with confirmed cases of 53,276. At first blush, it would seem like corvid-19 is being way overblown in terms of it's threat ... OR ... there's more to this than we are being told. I don't believe we have even begun to get a handle on the number of COVOID-19 cases that are extant in this country, nor has the "season" for it come close to peaking. Another factor: the percentage of deaths attributed to the flu versus the percentage theoretically attributable to COVID-19. Let's say there are 45 million flu cases a year here, a number between 38 and 54 million, and 35,000 deaths, again an arbitrary number. A 1% death rate would add up to 450,000 deaths. The estimates for the total number of possible COVOID-19 cases in this country is* higher than the numbers of flu cases, and the death rate is estimated to be much higher than the 1% rate for flu deaths. Also, apparently it is far more contagious than flu. I've had the various sorts of flu at least a half dozen times over the years. A couple of times it knocked me on my ass, but I survived. There are an awful lot of unknowns about COVOID-19. But, hell, we'll be through it by Easter, your Trump sort of says. It seems that what is driving the concern is the percentages of deaths (flu versus covid-19).* Percentages* produce a different perspective than raw numbers.* Flu looks like about a 0.15 percent death rate where covid-19 looks like 1.5%.** Yet the raw numbers (about 35,000 versus 700) produces a totally different perspective. I am starting to believe we are in for a very long, long ride. There are some reports of China's infection rate is beginning to climb again in the area of the initial "ground zero" which may suggest a second wave of the virus has begun. I agree and our almost complete unpreparedness for something like this, plus a POTUS who pooh-poohed it for many weeks, plus all the back and forth bull**** he is spewing now ain't helping. His daily briefings are a horror show. He needs to get off that podium, let the experts update us when they have hard information, and not every day. If possible (but I know it's asking the impossible) I'd like to focus this thread on the issues of seasonal flu versus C-19 and not politics. Nobody was prepared for this. One possibility is that as a society we have "accepted" the casualties of the yearly seasonal flu, much like we have pretty much accepted the casualties as a result of car accidents, suicides and other deaths. It's just factored into our lives. Why c-19 is different and the attention it is getting with shutdowns of businesses, etc. is the question. Probably the level of contagiousness and the rapid spread throughout the world are factors. Sources are saying that the rate of infection in places like Italy are beginning to level off and may even be declining. The graph on John's link (below) seems to be showing a slowing of world infections. If that happens in other countries, the death numbers may still be lower world-wide than the flu deaths in the USA in one season. Link: http://ncov.bii.virginia.edu/dashboard/?fbclid=IwAR0p3SzdCXvoeCqWLpW9e3NJsSPahWEThqxOlw99 hX8cshDW6GbdBdCH-jk === I look at those graphs several times a day. There seems to be a daily anomaly between the morning and evening data, possibly caused by a reporting lag. In the morning you can convince yourself that there has been an inflection point and things are starting to level off. Late in the day that effect seems to disappear. This is the ragged edge of a wave that is going over us. I doubt the numbers mean that much day by day. You just need to watch the curve. Again, here is the f'ing update schedule: What’s your data level and how often do you update your data? For USA, we provide data at the county level, and we update it multiple times during the day; For China, India, Canada, Germany, Greece, Chile, Brazil, Argentina, Colombia and Peru, we provide data at the State/Province level and it is updated at least twice a day; For Other regions/countries, we provide data at the country level and update it at least twice a day. https://nssac.github.io/covid-19/dashboard/ This is like staring at a stock ticker. It will just make you nuts. Then don't stare at it! Besides, that's not the link that shows the changes. Here it is: https://nssac.bii.virginia.edu/covid-19/dashboard/ Move the 'Time Slider' from left to right to see how the case load is growing in the US, or the world if you zoom out like you can on Google Maps. -- Freedom Isn't Free! |
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