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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but
the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
"Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. Yeah. Arrived here at the house in Florida yesterday with the Scout safely in tow. I expected to be battening down the hatches. Now it seems it may be more of threat further up the coast, maybe even Cape Cod. Might have to go north again to secure the house and boats. Eisboch |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
"Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. Shades of Hugo. Bert |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral?
-- Bill Kiene Kiene's Fly Shop Sacramento, CA www.kiene.com "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/im...00313_5day.gif
WTNT43 KNHC 130843 TCDAT3 HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003 THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS... ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST. HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE. NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT EVER REACH FLORIDA. BRIAN NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT HIS HAT. FORECASTER AVILA "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Bill Kiene wrote:
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral? Doesn't appear that this one will be hitting Florida. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Bill Kiene wrote:
Yes, our grandkids are on the coast of Florida below Cape Canaveral? From Accuweather: Hurricane Isabel has weakened a bit, but still remains a very powerful hurricane moving westward across the Atlantic Ocean. As of 11:00 a.m. AST Saturday morning, the center of Isabel was located near 22.2 north and 61.5 west, or about 405 miles northeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. The maximum sustained winds have held from 5:00 a.m. at 150 mph with gusts to 185 mph. This is a Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Isabel remained a Category 5 storm for 42 consecutive hours. The record is held by Hurricane Dog in 1950, which stayed at Category 5 strength for 60 consecutive hours. *&*However, forecast models suggest that Isabel can become a Cat 5 hurricane again later Saturday afternoon.** The eyewall has improved again Saturday morning. Isabel is moving to the west at around 10 mph, and this general track is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. An eyewall replacement cycle has taken place, and this may be a sign that the storm will re-strengthen; if that eyewall contracts, the pressure will fall again. The forecasting of weakening and strengthening of a hurricane is very difficult, and most attempts are unsuccessful. The hurricane will cross the path that Hurricane Fabian took several days ago. The water stirred up by Fabian is cooler, and that cooler water over several miles could also cause Isabel to weaken some. This weakening process might allow the hurricane to react to the weakness in the Atlantic high pressure ridge to the north, allowing a more west-northwest track later in the day. This track and forward speed mean Isabel will pass north of the Leeward Islands Saturday and pass well north of Puerto Rico overnight. The hurricane should be north of the Dominican Republic by early Monday. On Tuesday, we expect it located east of the Bahamas. The main synoptic features that will play a role in the track of Isabel are the Western Atlantic high pressure ridge now nosing into New England and an upper-level trough that will approach the eastern U.S. late in the weekend and early next week. A weakening of the Western Atlantic ridge in the next couple of days will cause the hurricane to move on a west-northwest and even northwest track. If the ridge does not weaken, the storm will probably track farther south. Either way, Isabel is still several days away from affecting the U.S. mainland. The area of low pressure from the remnants of Tropical Storm Henri is moving into northeasternmost North Carolina Saturday morning. With high pressure off New England, the low will continue to move northward. This feature was unable to get re-organized into a tropical system. However, there will be gale nor'easter conditions along the Middle Atlantic coast Saturday. (ie: wind, rain and pounding of beaches). A tropical wave is located along 92 west, south of 20 north Saturday. This system is causing showers and thunderstorms to fire up in the southern Bay of Campeche. In the eastern Atlantic, a tropical wave is located along 41 west, south of 20 north. Weak surface winds make this feature very hard to find. Another tropical wave is positioned over the Cape Verde Islands along 23 west and south of 18 north with scattered convection. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
snip
NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT EVER REACH FLORIDA. BRIAN NEED NOT WORRY ABOUT HIS HAT. FORECASTER AVILA Can anybody guess who Brian is? |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
On Sat, 13 Sep 2003 07:51:54 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote: Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. I'm watching it intently since my boat is on the Jersey shore. Unfortunately, by the time I know for sure whether I'll have to evacuate it, it'll be too late. I'm definitely NOT going to get caught sailing up the Delaware Bay in a cat 5 hurricane. It was already damaged in a storm a few weeks ago when the finger pier broke and let the boat wrap itself up against the metal piling. Luckily all it did was destroy the bow rail. A direct or even close hit from Isabel and I can probably kiss the boat goodbye. The storm that broke the finger pier was only around 60mph winds. Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the South Jersey or Philadelphia area? Steve |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
WTNT43 KNHC 140839
TCDAT3 HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR. FORECASTER AVILA "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven
Shelikoff) wrote: Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the South Jersey or Philadelphia area? =================================== These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe http://www.topsinquality.com/ They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Wayne.B wrote:
On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven Shelikoff) wrote: Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the South Jersey or Philadelphia area? =================================== These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe http://www.topsinquality.com/ They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34. Steve should visit a few marinas in South Jersey where sportfishermen hang out, and find out what shops do decent work at decent prices building tee-tops and the like. Those shops will be able to handle his job in their sleep. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 10:15:24 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote: Wayne.B wrote: On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven Shelikoff) wrote: Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the South Jersey or Philadelphia area? =================================== These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe http://www.topsinquality.com/ They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34. Steve should visit a few marinas in South Jersey where sportfishermen hang out, and find out what shops do decent work at decent prices building tee-tops and the like. Those shops will be able to handle his job in their sleep. =================== Probably so, but Tops-in-Quality already has templates for all major production sailboats and will probably be quicker and less expensive. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 10:15:24 -0400, Harry Krause
wrote: Wayne.B wrote: On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven Shelikoff) wrote: Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the South Jersey or Philadelphia area? =================================== These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe http://www.topsinquality.com/ They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34. Steve should visit a few marinas in South Jersey where sportfishermen hang out, and find out what shops do decent work at decent prices building tee-tops and the like. Those shops will be able to handle his job in their sleep. I got a recommendation for C&C Towers, who do just that. I also have a fiberglass man calling a friend who does top notch stainless welding, where you can't even tell it's been done. The problem is that I call these guys and leave messages and don't get return calls. I've been trying for 2 weeks now and haven't gotten anywhere. That's no way to run a business. I'd like to get it done by mid October because I don't want to sail back to Philly with a shredded bow rail. But it looks like I might have to. Steve |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 10:13:44 -0400, Wayne.B
wrote: On Sun, 14 Sep 2003 04:38:12 GMT, (Steven Shelikoff) wrote: Anyone know of a good stainless steel tubing fabricator in either the South Jersey or Philadelphia area? =================================== These guys are in Michigan but do a good job and ship anywhe http://www.topsinquality.com/ They have been around a long time and my local rigger recommended them when I needed a new bow pulpit for a Cal-34. I'll give them a call on Monday. Thanks. I still have to arrange for a place to install it though. I could do it myself I guess, but the marina is paying for the whole thing so I'd like to get it done professionally. Steve |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
I'm in CT and having my boat hauled out. I'm pretty much done for the
season anyway :( When I talked to the guy in Westbrook he said everyone is in a panic pulling everything out that they can. Anyone else in CT hear anything yet? "Jim -" wrote in message t... WTNT43 KNHC 140839 TCDAT3 HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2003 AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT JUST MEASURED 700 MB PEAK WINDS OF 148 AND 143 KNOTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...RESPECTIVELY. THIS CORRESPONDS TO 135 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE BUT ASSUMING THAT THE ENTIRE WIND FIELD HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 140 KNOTS IN THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 938 MB. SATELLITE PRESENTATION CONTINUES TO BE SPECTACULAR WITH A DISTINCT EYE AND OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ISABEL WITH AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. THIS DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE REALISTIC SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS OFF THE U.S EAST COAST AND WEAKENS THE STEERING CURRENTS. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS GONE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REBUILD AND ISABEL SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THIS TRACK...DANGEROUS ISABEL WILL BE NEARING THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE GUNS CONSENSUS WHICH HAS HAD A VERY LOW ERROR SO FAR. FORECASTER AVILA "Harry Krause" wrote in message ... Looks to be one heck of a storm. Not anywhere near the U.S. (yet), but the tracking prediction charts are interesting. -- * * * email sent to will *never* get to me. |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
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Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
A Hurricane Isabel Message board has been set up to help exchange
information about relief efforts, post updates, upload photos and general discussion. Please post if you can help. http://www.viexpo.com/dmstest/hurricane.html Thanks Disaster Message Service |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
I live in Bermuda and just went through Fabian. We had winds of 105 mph with
gusts of 160 mph. We were very lucky it could have been a lot worse. You need to take these storms seriously they can pick up cars and topple trees like they were nothing. People get hurt trying to save things that at the end of the day can be replaced. http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/...=908001&Ref=PH |
Anyone Else Watching Hurricane Isabel?
Ah hell, it's just nature throwing a little chlorine in the gene pool....
-- Keith __ Disc space -- the final frontier! "gren" wrote in message .. . I live in Bermuda and just went through Fabian. We had winds of 105 mph with gusts of 160 mph. We were very lucky it could have been a lot worse. You need to take these storms seriously they can pick up cars and topple trees like they were nothing. People get hurt trying to save things that at the end of the day can be replaced. http://www.theroyalgazette.com/apps/...=908001&Ref=PH |
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