August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

"tom" wrote in message
oups.com...
So, 30 miles past Cape May, I turned around in winds reaching for
30 knots and gusting well over,
I check the buoy data for Cape May area, there was no 30 knot winds,
max was 20 with 6 ft seas,
so reality check: maybe it was 30 knot gust, and it was apparent wind.
The 10-15 doesn't include gusts and definitely doesn't include your
apparent wind.

Isolated storms not withstanding, NOAA does a pretty good job.
Last year I record the weather for the SE coast from Nov 5-Jan 5,
forecasts may have had the wind
direction off by up to 45 degrees and the strength off by 5 knots, but
other than that they were correct.

Sea stories are like fish stories....wind and waves get bigger every
time the story is told.
Tom


Ya, it's not like the winds 30 or 50 feet above the surface are stronger
than those *at* the surface. Oh, wait -- they usually are, aren't they?

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

On Aug 23, 8:31 am, tom wrote:
....
I check the buoy data for Cape May area, there was no 30 knot winds,
max was 20 with 6 ft seas,
....

Weather, particularly weather associated squall lines, is very
localized and buoys can only report the weather right where they are.
NOAA may also tend to underestimate wind speeds in squally conditions
because of their averaging method. NOAA generally does do a fine job
IME, but they aren't omniscient. It seems perfectly reasonable that
Skip could have been operating in much worse conditions than those
reported by the buoy.

-- Tom.

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

....
There is a standard height for measuring "surface" wind speeds. I've
forgotten what it is but I think it is 33 feet.
....

That's right, 10 meters is the "standard" in most models for surface
winds. From the GRIB standard definitions: "Wind Speed is the
expected sustained 10 meter wind speed (in knots) ..." The very
pointed headed folk can argue about what that 10 meters is above, but
"mean sea level" will do. Reporting stations just report the wind as
they measure it at their instrument and don't correct for height.
NOAA generally does average wind speeds over two minutes to get
sustained winds. Hence the wind/gust format for buoy reports.

-- Tom.

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

On Aug 25, 4:42 pm, wrote:
Today, NOAA said to expect winds of 5-10 knots in the morning and 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 in the afternoon. Predicted seas of 2 -3 feet.

What we got was winds of 0 knots with gusts up to 2 knots and seas of about 3-6
inches.- Hide quoted text -

And maybe if we werent spending billions paying for a war and other
such BS, NOAA would have more staff, better equipment and more
accurate forcasting, the USCG would be be helping sailors not zipping
arround trying to catch some threat, oh... and a college iducation
woudnt bankrupt parents. Heck, we might even have continued Highseas
weather fax next year cause the CG has the needed money. THe money is
there. Its just about priorities.


Yesterday I saw a wind generator blade go down I-84. It was made in
VIet Nam as is the inner tube on my bicycle. We lost that war. It cost
billions, at least 53,000 american lives, and was the domino that
would cause the rest of the world to fall to the Red Tide.

All for what?

So we can have cheep innertubs 30 years later ?????? Do yo think we
would have cheep inner tubes if we won the war?
Bob

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

On Aug 25, 4:42 pm, wrote:

Today, NOAA said to expect winds of 5-10 knots in the morning and 10-15 knots
with gusts to 20 in the afternoon. Predicted seas of 2 -3 feet.

What we got was winds of 0 knots with gusts up to 2 knots and seas of about 3-6
inches.- Hide quoted text -


Oh, I forgot............ stop whinning. Look outside, tap your
barometer, and go sailing.
Why are there so many people here always whinning about NOAAs weather
accuaracy. ON this one I side with Willll burrr.
BOb

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

On Sat, 25 Aug 2007 23:42:34 GMT, wrote:

We just had a boat sink a couple days ago in Long Island Sound. The
very experienced boaters (all survived BECAUSE they were experienced)
were making what is normally two hour trip from Stamford up the coast
to there home marina. NOAA report told them to expect seas of 1-2
feet. They were rescued by Coast Guard who stated that seas were 7
feet. NOAA is OFTEN wrong, at least around here.

What kind of boat?

Casady

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

On Aug 26, 5:32 am, wrote:


Do they have adult literacy courses nearby that you could attend?- Hide quoted text -

Why, do you think it would help my ailing skills?
Bob

August 22 - A Ripping Good Sail, or, Anybody NOAA good forecaster???
 

On 2007-08-23 15:30:53 -0400, "Roger Long" said:

"KLC Lewis" wrote

Ya, it's not like the winds 30 or 50 feet above the surface are
stronger than those *at* the surface. Oh, wait -- they usually are,
aren't they?
And by a lot.

And some reporting stations are just *wrong*!

It's enlightening to hear the Tolchester station report calm or 3 knots
at the top of the last hour when I was inside the anchorage seeing a
solid 12, and the anchorage is fairly well protected compared to the
breakwater.

--
Jere Lull
Tanzer 28 #4 out of Tolchester, MD
Xan's new pages: http://web.mac.com/jerelull/iWeb/Xan/
Our BVI pages: http://homepage.mac.com/jerelull/BVI/