LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

stay home, guys, hidden in the southwest corner of your reinforced concrete
basements. otherwise, YOU ARE GONNA DIE A CRISPY CRITTER DEATH!!!!!!!

Boo.

From: "Keith"
Date: 7/12/2004 6:48 AM Eastern Daylight Time
Message-id:

I'd pay real money to watch that!

--


Keith
__
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car
keys to teenage boys. --P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian
" As an experiment to test whether JAX believes what he says, I propose:

JAX come sailing here in N. Florida in thunderstorms of MY choosing.
He will get a choice of various boats but we remove any grounding
system and replace them with a system where he completes the circuit
across his chest. Prior to sailing (while I remain on shore
videotaping for everyones amusement), he takes out a term life
insurance policy with me as beneficiary for gretaer than the value of
the boat plus $50,000 (I will pay for this policy).
After emerging unscathed from each storm, i will buy him dinner and
pay his hotel bill for the night (we have to have a thunderstorm each
day I pay). After only 11 storms, i will thank him, pay his plane
ticket cost plus $1000 and agree that he is a great sailor. He can
then go back and tell everyone what cowards those Florida rednecks are
and I will agree. Furhtermore, If JAX is worried about sailing in
thunderstorm wind (I am) then he can use a powerboat with a suitably
tall outrigger.

If JAX truly believes what he says, he should jump on this opportunity
to make a fast $1000, get at least 11 days paid for in FL and get to
go sailing for free.

This offer is only good till Sept 10 because then storms start to
taper off in intensity. He must agree to hold me and the boat owner
blameless for any harm that befalls him due to lightning.

So JAX, put up or shut up.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

"Keith" wrote in message ...
I'd pay real money to watch that!

I'd figger I'd sell the rights to a reality TV show called "Stupid is
as Stupid Does"

--


Keith
__
Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey and car
keys to teenage boys. --P.J. O'Rourke, Civil Libertarian
" As an experiment to test whether JAX believes what he says, I propose:

JAX come sailing here in N. Florida in thunderstorms of MY choosing.
He will get a choice of various boats but we remove any grounding
system and replace them with a system where he completes the circuit
across his chest. Prior to sailing (while I remain on shore
videotaping for everyones amusement), he takes out a term life
insurance policy with me as beneficiary for gretaer than the value of
the boat plus $50,000 (I will pay for this policy).
After emerging unscathed from each storm, i will buy him dinner and
pay his hotel bill for the night (we have to have a thunderstorm each
day I pay). After only 11 storms, i will thank him, pay his plane
ticket cost plus $1000 and agree that he is a great sailor. He can
then go back and tell everyone what cowards those Florida rednecks are
and I will agree. Furhtermore, If JAX is worried about sailing in
thunderstorm wind (I am) then he can use a powerboat with a suitably
tall outrigger.

If JAX truly believes what he says, he should jump on this opportunity
to make a fast $1000, get at least 11 days paid for in FL and get to
go sailing for free.

This offer is only good till Sept 10 because then storms start to
taper off in intensity. He must agree to hold me and the boat owner
blameless for any harm that befalls him due to lightning.

So JAX, put up or shut up.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

I'd figger I'd sell the rights to a reality TV show called "Stupid is
as Stupid Does"

the name of that show is "Stupid is as Stupid Claims a EE Degree in Physics"



--


Keith

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

On 8 Jul 2004 11:10:43 -0700, (Parallax) wrote:
Out of curiosity, I did a quick back of the envelope estimate of the
probability of a lone sailboat getting hit by lightning in a
thunderstorm.
===================================

Here are a few more observation points to ponder:

Back in the late 80s or early 90s, there was a major sailboat race
around Long Island that got hit by a severe thunderstorm. Out of
about 200 boats that were entered, three were hit, and one of the
three was hit twice. Empirically that equates to a 2% chance.

Here's another statistic published today by the Lee County weather
service in SW Florida: A typical thunderstorm here will have about
500 cloud-to-ground strikes. A major storm (like the one we had
yesterday) will have about 3500 CTG strikes. If you assume that a
major storm takes in a 10 x 10 mile area, that is a 100 sq miles, and
with 35 strikes per sq mile. Let's assume that the odds of a solitary
mast being hit are 50% within 100 yards of a strike. There are about
310 100 yard squares in a sq mile and the odds of any one square
taking a hit are 35/310 or about 11% in a major storm, between 1 and 2
percent in an ordinary storm. Going with 50% odds, your chances of a
direct hit would be 5% in a big storm and less than 1% otherwise.

Here's another data point. In 35 or 40 years of boating, much of it
under sail, I've been through about 10 really major thunder storms,
maybe 50 of the ordinary sort, and have been hit once. No damage to
people or boat but we lost all of the electronics onboard except for
my hand held GPS. We don't even know for sure if it was a direct hit
but it was WAY too close for comfort and we were 300 miles off shore.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

On 11 Jul 2004 22:06:29 GMT, (JAXAshby) wrote:

btw, if 4% to 20% of all sailboats mooring in the State of Florida get struck
by lightning each year, no insurance company on the planet would insure any
boat in the State of Florida without a HUGE increase in premium

===============================

All joking aside, insurance has gotten almost that bad in Florida.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

All joking aside, insurance has gotten almost that bad in Florida.



That has to do with several hurricanes and not enough insurance premiums.

LIGHTNING STRIKE PROBABILITY
 

Wayne.B wrote in message . ..
On 8 Jul 2004 11:10:43 -0700, (Parallax) wrote:
Out of curiosity, I did a quick back of the envelope estimate of the
probability of a lone sailboat getting hit by lightning in a
thunderstorm.
===================================

Here are a few more observation points to ponder:

Back in the late 80s or early 90s, there was a major sailboat race
around Long Island that got hit by a severe thunderstorm. Out of
about 200 boats that were entered, three were hit, and one of the
three was hit twice. Empirically that equates to a 2% chance.

A small dataset but close enough to what I calculated.

Here's another statistic published today by the Lee County weather
service in SW Florida: A typical thunderstorm here will have about
500 cloud-to-ground strikes. A major storm (like the one we had
yesterday) will have about 3500 CTG strikes. If you assume that a
major storm takes in a 10 x 10 mile area, that is a 100 sq miles, and
with 35 strikes per sq mile. Let's assume that the odds of a solitary
mast being hit are 50% within 100 yards of a strike. There are about
310 100 yard squares in a sq mile and the odds of any one square
taking a hit are 35/310 or about 11% in a major storm, between 1 and 2
percent in an ordinary storm. Going with 50% odds, your chances of a
direct hit would be 5% in a big storm and less than 1% otherwise.

Once again, close to what I calculated (5%).

Here's another data point. In 35 or 40 years of boating, much of it
under sail, I've been through about 10 really major thunder storms,
maybe 50 of the ordinary sort, and have been hit once. No damage to
people or boat but we lost all of the electronics onboard except for
my hand held GPS. We don't even know for sure if it was a direct hit
but it was WAY too close for comfort and we were 300 miles off shore.